We analyze the time-series of prices in the Spanish electricity market by means of a time varying-transition-probabilities Markov Switching model. Accounting for demand and supply conditions, we show that the time-series of prices is characterized by two significantly different price levels. Based on a Green and Porter type of model that specifically introduces the rules of the bidding process, we construct several triggers for price wars. The triggers considered are statistically significant and report the predicted signs. In particular, price wars are triggered by unexpected changes in the major generators` market shares and revenues. We obtain more empirical support to Green and Porter`s model than previous studies.
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Paper provided by University of Oxford, Department of Economics in its series Economics Series Working Papers with number
136.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
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