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Price Wars and Collusion in the Spanish Electricity Market

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Author Info

  • Natalia Fabra

    (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)

  • Juan Toro

    (Oxford University)

Abstract

\We analyze the time-series of prices in the Spanish electricity market by means of a time varying-transition-probability Markov switching model. Accounting for changes in demand and cost conditions (which reflect changes in input costs, capacity availability and hydro power), we show that the time-series of prices is characterized by two significantly different price levels. Based on a Green and Porter (1984)'s type of model that introduces several institutional details, we construct trigger variables that affect the likelihood of starting a price war. By interpreting the signs of the triggers, we are able to infer some of the properties of the collusive strategy that firms might have followed. We obtain more empirical support to Green and Porter's model than previous studies. REVISED: January 2004

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Industrial Organization with number 0212001.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 09 Dec 2002
Date of revision: 31 Aug 2003
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpio:0212001

Note: Type of Document - Tex; prepared on IBM PC -; to print on PostScript; pages: 27
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: Electricity Markets; Collusion; Markov Switching;

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  3. Severin Borenstein & James B. Bushnell & Frank A. Wolak, 2002. "Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California's Restructured Wholesale Electricity Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1376-1405, December.
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  8. Frank A. Wolak & Robert H. Patrick, 2001. "The Impact of Market Rules and Market Structure on the Price Determination Process in the England and Wales Electricity Market," NBER Working Papers 8248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Joskow, Paul L. & Kahn, Edward P., 2001. "A Quantitative Analysis of Pricing Behavior in California's Wholesale Electricity Market During Summer 2000," Working paper 506, Regulation2point0.
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  12. Rotemberg, Julio J & Saloner, Garth, 1986. "A Supergame-Theoretic Model of Price Wars during Booms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 390-407, June.
  13. von der Fehr, Nils-Henrik Morch & Harbord, David, 1993. "Spot Market Competition in the UK Electricity Industry," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(418), pages 531-46, May.
  14. Catherine D. Wolfram, 1999. "Measuring Duopoly Power in the British Electricity Spot Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 805-826, September.
  15. Abreu, Dilip & Pearce, David & Stacchetti, Ennio, 1986. "Optimal cartel equilibria with imperfect monitoring," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 251-269, June.
  16. Arocena, Pablo & Kuhn, Kai-Uwe- & Regibeau, Pierre, 1999. "Regulatory reform in the Spanish electricity industry: a missed opportunity for competition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 387-399, July.
  17. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
  18. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Natalia Fabra, 2003. "Tacit Collusion in Repeated Auctions: Uniform Versus Discriminatory," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 271-293, 09.
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