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Price Wars and Collusion in the Spanish Electricity Market

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Abstract

We analyze the pattern of pool prices in the Spanish electricity market during 1998 by means of a Time Varying Transition Probabilities Markov switching model. Our purpose is two­fold: firstly, to identify and date the drops in prices that cannot be accounted for by supply nor demand conditions; and secondly, under the assumption that these correspond with reversions to non­cooperative behaviour, to identify the trigger variables upon which a collusive equilibrium could be based upon. Our results confirm the hypothesis that two distinct price levels characterize the time series of pool prices, and point to the conclusion that price wars are induced by changes in the major generators' market shares. In turn, this shows that firms' pricing behaviour is highly influenced by the way in which the so­called Competition Transition Charges (CTCs) are computed.

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Paper provided by Centro de Estudios Andaluces in its series Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces with number E2001/05.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cea:doctra:e2001_05

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Keywords: Electricity Markets; Tacit Collusion; Markov Switching;

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  1. Newbery, D. M., 1997. "Competition, Contracts and Entry in the Electricity Spot Market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge 9707, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Green, Richard & Newbery, David M G, 1991. "Competition in the British Electricity Spot Market," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 557, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Paul Joskow & Edward Kahn, 2001. "A Quantitative Analysis of Pricing Behavior in California's Wholesale Electricity Market During Summer 2000," NBER Working Papers 8157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  5. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  10. Frank A. Wolak & Robert H. Patrick, 2001. "The Impact of Market Rules and Market Structure on the Price Determination Process in the England and Wales Electricity Market," NBER Working Papers 8248, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Catherine D. Wolfram, 1999. "Measuring Duopoly Power in the British Electricity Spot Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 805-826, September.
  12. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  13. Garcia-Diaz, Anton & Marin, Pedro L., 2003. "Strategic bidding in electricity pools with short-lived bids: an application to the Spanish market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 201-222, February.
  14. Rotemberg, Julio J & Saloner, Garth, 1986. "A Supergame-Theoretic Model of Price Wars during Booms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 390-407, June.
  15. Severin Borenstein & James B. Bushnell & Frank A. Wolak, 2002. "Measuring Market Inefficiencies in California's Restructured Wholesale Electricity Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1376-1405, December.
  16. Filardo, Andrew J, 1994. "Business-Cycle Phases and Their Transitional Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 299-308, July.
  17. Glenn Ellison, 1994. "Theories of Cartel Stability and the Joint Executive Committee," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(1), pages 37-57, Spring.
  18. Abreu, Dilip & Pearce, David & Stacchetti, Ennio, 1986. "Optimal cartel equilibria with imperfect monitoring," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 251-269, June.
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