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Analysis and Modelling of Electricity Futures Prices

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  • Borovkova Svetlana

    (Free University of Amsterdam and Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands)

  • Geman Helyette

    (Birkbeck, University of London)

Abstract

We model electricity futures prices using a seasonal forward curve model, quantifying seasonalities by a deterministic seasonal forward premium. Stochastic features of the futures prices are contained in the stochastic forward premium: a quantity analogous to the well-known convenience yield. The model parameters are estimated from the historical data of IPE electricity futures prices and the spark spread, and electricity forward curves are deseasonalized to reveal their underlying stochastic structure. We apply principal component analysis to the deseasonalized forward curves and develop trading strategies using indicators based on these principal components.

Suggested Citation

  • Borovkova Svetlana & Geman Helyette, 2006. "Analysis and Modelling of Electricity Futures Prices," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:10:y:2006:i:3:n:6
    DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1372
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    2. David Heath & Robert Jarrow & Andrew Morton, 2008. "Bond Pricing And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates: A New Methodology For Contingent Claims Valuation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 13, pages 277-305, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2018. "Hedging spark spread risk with futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 731-746.
    2. Deschatre, Thomas & Féron, Olivier & Gruet, Pierre, 2021. "A survey of electricity spot and futures price models for risk management applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    3. Rowińska, Paulina A. & Veraart, Almut E.D. & Gruet, Pierre, 2021. "A multi-factor approach to modelling the impact of wind energy on electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    4. Demers, Jean-Guy, 2009. "Multiple zone power forwards: A value at risk framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 714-726, September.
    5. Alper Ozun & Erman Erbaykal, 2009. "Detecting risk transmission from futures to spot markets without data stationarity: Evidence from Turkey's markets," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 365-376, August.
    6. Xavier Serrano-Guerrero & Guillermo Escrivá-Escrivá & Santiago Luna-Romero & Jean-Michel Clairand, 2020. "A Time-Series Treatment Method to Obtain Electrical Consumption Patterns for Anomalies Detection Improvement in Electrical Consumption Profiles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-23, February.
    7. Hipòlit Torró & Julio Lucia, 2008. "Short-term electricity futures prices: Evidence on the time-varying risk premium," Working Papers. Serie EC 2008-08, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).

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