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A Regime Switching Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices

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Author Info
Niels Haldrup
Morten O. Nielsen () (Department of Economics, University of Aarhus, Denmark)

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Abstract

In this paper we develop a regime switching model which can generate long memory (fractional integration) in each of the regime states. This property is relevant in a number of cases. For instance, the deregulated market for electricity power in the Nordic countries is characterized by electricity spot prices with a high degree of long memory. It occurs that in some time periods bilateral prices are identical whereas in other periods the prices differ. The latter occurs when a capacity congestion exists across regions and multiple price areas will result. If the price series are fractionally integrated this means that in some regimes, an extreme form of fractional cointegration amongst prices will exist. We define a Markov switching fractional integration model from which the fractional orders of integration in separate states can be estimated using Maximum Likelihood techniques. The model is adapted to data for the Nordic electricity spot market, and we find that regime swithing and long memory are empirically relevant to co-exist. In particular, we find that the price behaviour for single markets can be very different depending upon the presence or absence of bottlenecks in electricity transmission. Using Monte Carlo forecasting we find that the regime switching model appears to be especially attractive in forecasting relative prices.

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Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2004-2.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: 02 Apr 2004
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Handle: RePEc:aah:aarhec:2004-2

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Related research
Keywords: Cointegration; electricity prices; forecasting; fractional integration and cointegration; ong memory; Markov switching;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  4. Granger, Clive W. J. & Ding, Zhuanxin, 1996. "Varieties of long memory models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 61-77, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Davidson, James, 2004. "Forecasting Markov-switching dynamic, conditionally heteroscedastic processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 137-147, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Clive W.J. Granger & Namwon Hyung, 1999. "Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 99-14, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Lee, D. & Schmidt, P., 1993. "On the Power of the KPSS Test of Stationarity Against Fractionally-Integrated Alternatives," Papers 9111, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
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  9. Marius Ooms & M. Angeles Carnero & Siem Jan Koopman, 2004. "Periodic Heteroskedastic RegARFIMA models for daily electricity spot prices," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 158, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895.
  11. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Philip Hans Franses & Marius Ooms & Charles S. Bos, 1999. "Long memory and level shifts: Re-analyzing inflation rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 427-449. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Álvaro Escribano & Juan Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2002. "Modeling Electricity Prices: International Evidence," Economics Working Papers we022708, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2002. "A Markov-switching vector equilibrium correction model of the UK labour market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 233-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hallman, J. J., 1989. "Merging short-and long-run forecasts : An application of seasonal cointegration to monthly electricity sales forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 45-62, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Matteo Manera & Massimiliano Serati & Michele Plotegher, 2008. "Modeling Electricity Prices: From the State of the Art to a Draft of a New Proposal," Working Papers 2008.9, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms & M. Angeles Carnero, 2005. "Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-091/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Giulio Bottazzi & Sandro Sapio & Angelo Secchi, 2004. "Some Statistical Investigations on the Nature and Dynamics of Electricity Prices," LEM Papers Series 2004/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kuswanto, Heri & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2009. "Testing for Long Memory Against ESTAR Nonlinearities," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-427, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  5. BOUEZMARNI, Taoufik & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen V. K., 2006. "Nonparametric density estimation for positive time series," CORE Discussion Papers 2006085, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Niels Haldrup & Frank S. Nielsen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2007. "A Vector Autoregressive Model for Electricity Prices Subject to Long Memory and Regime Switching," CREATES Research Papers 2007-29, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Bent Jesper Christensen & Thomas Elgaard Jensen & Rune Mølgaard, 2007. "Market Power in Power Markets: Evidence from Forward Prices of Electricity," CREATES Research Papers 2007-30, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  8. Svend Hylleberg, 2004. "On the Exploitation of Market Power in the Nordic Electricity Markets. The Case of Elsam," Economics Working Papers 2004-5, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  9. Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Per Frederiksen, 2008. "Fully Modified Narrow-Band Least Squares Estimation of Stationary Fractional Cointegration," Working Papers 1171, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Haldrup; Niels & Morten Oerregaard Nielsen, 2005. "Directional Congestion and Regime Switching in a Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices," Economics Working Papers 2005-18, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Hipòlit Torró & Julio Lucia, 2008. "Short-term electricity futures prices: Evidence on the time-varying risk premium," Working Papers. Serie EC 2008-08, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
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