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Forecasting Markov-switching dynamic, conditionally heteroscedastic processes

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  • Davidson, James

Abstract

Recursive formulae are derived for the multi-step point forecasts and forecast standard errors of Markov switching models with ARMA([infinity],q) dynamics (including the fractionally integrated case) and conditional heteroscedasticity in ARCH([infinity]) form. Hamilton's dynamic models of switching mean and variance are also treated, in a slightly modified version of the analysis.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Statistics & Probability Letters.

Volume (Year): 68 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 137-147

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Handle: RePEc:eee:stapro:v:68:y:2004:i:2:p:137-147

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Related research

Keywords: Forecasts Markov-switching ARFIMA ARCH;

References

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  1. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
  2. Blix, Mårten, 1999. "Forecasting Swedish Inflation With a Markov Switching VAR," Working Paper Series 76, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  3. Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1998. "A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages C47-C75.
  4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  5. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
  6. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
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Cited by:
  1. Bejger, Sylwester, 2012. "Cartel in the Indian cement industry: An attempt to identify it," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-18, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. Haldrup, Niels & Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2006. "A regime switching long memory model for electricity prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 349-376.
  3. Niels Haldrup & Frank S. Nielsen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2007. "A Vector Autoregressive Model for Electricity Prices Subject to Long Memory and Regime Switching," CREATES Research Papers 2007-29, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.

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