Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

A Markov-switching vector equilibrium correction model of the UK labour market

Contents:

Author Info

  • Massimiliano Marcellino

    (Istituto di Economia Politica, Università Bocconi and IGIER)

  • Grayham E. Mizon

    (Economics Department, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ U.K.)

  • Hans-Martin Krolzig

    (Department of Economics and Nuffield College, Oxford University, Manor Road Building, Oxford OX1 3UQ, U.K.)

Abstract

There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. In this paper we present a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of part of the UK labour market since the mid 1960s. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model in which some parameters change according to the phase of the business cycle. Output, employment, labour supply and real earnings are found to have a common cyclical component. The long run dynamics are characterized by one cointegrating vector relating unemployment to trend-adjusted real wages and output. Despite there having been many changes affecting this sector of the UK economy, the Markov-switching vector-equilibrium-correction model with three regimes (representing recession, normal growth, and high growth) provides a good characterization of the sample data, and performs well relative to alternative linear and non-linear models. The results of an impulse-response analysis highlight the dangers of using VARs when the constancy of the estimated coefficients has not been established, and demonstrate the advantages of generating regime dependent responses.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00181/papers/2027002/20270233.pdf
Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 27 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 233-254

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:27:y:2002:i:2:p:233-254

Note: Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: August 2001
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Stumpergasse 56, A-1060 Vienna
Phone: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 0
Fax: ++43 - (0)1 - 599 91 - 555
Web page: http://link.springer.de/link/service/journals/00181/index.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm

Related research

Keywords: Business Cycles; Employment; Impulse-Response Analysis; Cointegration; Regime Shifts; Markov Switching.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Hall, S G, 1986. "An Application of the Granger & Engle Two-Step Estimation Procedure to United Kingdom Aggregate Wage Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 229-39, August.
  2. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, 2001. "Small-system modelling of real wages, inflation, unemployment and output per capita in Italy 1970-1994," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 359-370.
  3. Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers, Boston University - Department of Economics 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  4. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, . "Modelling shifts in the wage-price and unemployment-inflation relationships in Italy, Poland, and the UK," Working Papers 145, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  5. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-87, October.
  6. Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
  7. repec:wop:humbsf:1996-25 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Krolzig, H.-M. & Toro, J., 1999. "A New Approach to the Analysis of Shocks and the Cycle in a Model of Output and Employment," Economics Working Papers eco99/30, European University Institute.
  9. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, December.
  10. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Reformulating empirical macro-econometric modelling," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0104, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, October.
  12. Holly,Sean & Weale,Martin (ed.), 2000. "Econometric Modelling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521650694, 9.
  13. Hall, S G, 1989. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Cointegration Vectors: An Example of the Johansen Procedure," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(2), pages 213-18, March.
  14. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  15. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  16. H. Krolzig, 1996. "Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated VAR Processes with Markovian Regime Shifts," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,25, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  17. Clements, Michael P. & Mizon, Grayham E., 1991. "Empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series : VAR and structural models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 887-917, May.
  18. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Asymmetries in the Cyclical Behaviour of UK Labour Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1303-23, November.
  19. Cooper, Russell & John, Andrew, 1988. "Coordinating Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 103(3), pages 441-63, August.
  20. Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Sensier, Marianne, 2000. "A Disaggregated Markov-Switching Model of the Business Cycle in UK Manufacturing," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(4), pages 442-60, Special I.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:27:y:2002:i:2:p:233-254. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn) or (Christopher F Baum).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.