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Efficient Likelihold Inference in Nonstationary Univariate Models

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Author Info
Morten Oe. Nielsen () (Department of Economics, University of Aarhus, Denmark)

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Abstract

Recent literature shows that embedding fractionally integrated time series models with spectral poles at the long-run and/or seasonal frequencies in autoregressive frameworks leads to estimators and test statistics with non-standard limiting distributions that must be simulated on a case-by-case basis. However, we show that by embedding the models in a general I(d) framework the resulting estimators and tests regain all the desirable properties from standard statistical analysis. We derive the time domain maximum likelihood estimator and show that it is consistent, asymptotically normal, and under Gaussianity asymptotically efficient in the sense that it has asymptotic variance equal to the inverse of the Fisher information matrix. The three likelihood based test statistics (Wald, likelihood ratio, and Lagrange multiplier) are asymptotically equivalent and have the usual asymptotic chi-squared distribution and under the additional assumption of Gaussianity they are locally most powerful. In the special case where the dynamics of the model is characterized by a scalar parameter, we show that, in addition, the two-sided tests achieve the Gaussian power envelope of all invariant and unbiased tests, i.e. they are uniformly most powerful invariant unbiased. The finite sample properties of the tests are evaluated by Monte Carlo experiments. In contrast to what might be expected from the literature, the likelihood ratio test is found to outperform the Lagrange multiplier and Wald tests.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series Economics Working Papers with number 2001-8.

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Handle: RePEc:aah:aarhec:2001-8

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Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

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Related research
Keywords: Fractional Integration; Nonstationarity; Likelihood Inference; Efficient Estimation; Optimal Tests; Limiting Power; Small Sample Power;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Bierens, Herman J., 2001. "Complex Unit Roots And Business Cycles: Are They Real?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(05), pages 962-983, October. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Søren Johansen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2007. "Likelihood Inference for a Nonstationary Fractional Autoregressive Model," Discussion Papers 07-27, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Haldrup; Niels & Morten Oerregaard Nielsen, 2005. "Directional Congestion and Regime Switching in a Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices," Economics Working Papers 2005-18, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Morten Oerregaard Nielsen, . "Optimal Residual Based Tests for Fractional Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Economics Working Papers 2002-7, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Per Frederiksen, 2005. "Finite Sample Comparison of Parametric, Semiparametric, and Wavelet Estimators of Fractional Integration," Working Papers 1189, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Per Frederiksen & Frank S. Nielsen, 2008. "Estimation of Dynamic Models with Nonparametric Simulated Maximum Likelihood," CREATES Research Papers 2008-59, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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