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Understanding Electricity Price Volatility within and across Markets

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Author Info
Goto, Mika (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry)
Karolyi, G. Andrew (Ohio State U)
Abstract

This study analyzes how electricity price volatility evolves over time for different electricity trading hubs in several deregulated markets around the world. The goal is to uncover common features across hubs within each market in the daily spot price volatility processes related to seasonality, mean reversion, conditionally autoregressive heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and possibly time-dependent jumps. We apply our analysis to markets in U.S., Nord Pool, and Australia. We show that ARCH and time-dependent jumps are important statistical features of price volatility across all hubs in each market but with different levels of intensity. We also find that inferences about the role of seasonality components are sensitive to modeling of the ARCH and jump features.

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Paper provided by Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2004-12.

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Date of creation: Jul 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2004-12

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G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Frank A. Wolak, 2000. "Market Design and Price Behavior in Restructured Electricity Markets: An International Comparison," NBER Chapters, in: Deregulation and Interdependence in the Asia-Pacific Region, NBER-EASE Volume 8, pages 79-137 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  2. Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-44.
  4. Borenstein, Severin, 2000. "Understanding Competitive Pricing and Market Power in Wholesale Electricity Markets," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 49-57, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Robinson, Terry & Baniak, Andrzej, 2002. "The Volatility of Prices in the English and Welsh Electricity Pool," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1487-95, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bryan R. Routledge & Duane J. Seppi & Chester S. Spatt, 2000. "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1297-1338, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 1999. "Cointegration analysis of spot electricity prices: insights on transmission efficiency in the western US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 435-448, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ng, Victor & Engle, Robert F. & Rothschild, Michael, 1992. "A multi-dynamic-factor model for stock returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 245-266. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. James MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 90-4, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  12. Steven L. Puller, 2007. "Pricing and Firm Conduct in California's Deregulated Electricity Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 75-87, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Walls, W David, 1999. "Volatility, Volume and Maturity in Electricity Futures," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 283-87, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Stephen Gordon & Josee Tremblay, 1997. "Electricity Prices and Elections in Quebec," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 505-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Álvaro Escribano & Juan Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2002. "Modeling Electricity Prices: International Evidence," Economics Working Papers we022708, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
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  1. Hipòlit Torró & Julio Lucia, 2008. "Short-term electricity futures prices: Evidence on the time-varying risk premium," Working Papers. Serie EC 2008-08, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
  2. Hipòlit Torró, 2007. "Forecasting Weekly Electricity Prices at Nord Pool," Working Papers 2007.88, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
  3. repec:mop:credwp:08.09.77 is not listed on IDEAS
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