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What Moves the Ex Post Variable Profit of Natural-Gas-Fired Generation in California?

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  • Chi-Keung Woo, Ira Horowitz, Jay Zarnikau, Jack Moore, Brendan Schneiderman, Tony Ho, and Eric Leung

Abstract

We use a large California database of over 32,000 hourly observations in the 45month period of April 2010 through December 2013 to document the ex post variable profit effects of multiple fundamental drivers on natural-gas-fired electricity generation. These drivers are the natural-gas price, system loads, nuclear capacities available, hydro conditions, and renewable generation. We find that profits are reduced by increases in generation from nuclear plants and wind farms, and are increased by increases in the natural-gas price and loads. Solar generation has a statistically insignificant effect, although this will likely change as solar energy increases its generation share in California's electricity market. Our findings support California's adopted resource adequacy program under which the state's load-serving entities may sign long-term bilateral contracts with generation developers to provide sufficient revenues to enable construction of new natural-gas-fired generation plants.

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  • Chi-Keung Woo, Ira Horowitz, Jay Zarnikau, Jack Moore, Brendan Schneiderman, Tony Ho, and Eric Leung, 2016. "What Moves the Ex Post Variable Profit of Natural-Gas-Fired Generation in California?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej37-3-woo
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    6. Woo, C.K. & Olson, A. & Chen, Y. & Moore, J. & Schlag, N. & Ong, A. & Ho, T., 2017. "Does California's CO2 price affect wholesale electricity prices in the Western U.S.A.?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 9-19.
    7. David P. Brown & Jay Zarnikau & Chi-Keung Woo, 2020. "Does locational marginal pricing impact generation investment location decisions? An analysis of Texas’s wholesale electricity market," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 99-140, December.
    8. Woo, C.K. & Chen, Y. & Zarnikau, J. & Olson, A. & Moore, J. & Ho, T., 2018. "Carbon trading’s impact on California’s real-time electricity market prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 579-587.
    9. Cao, K.H. & Qi, H.S. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2021. "Energy trading efficiency in the US Midcontinent electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    10. Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2019. "Renewable energy's vanishing premium in Texas's retail electricity pricing plans," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 764-770.
    11. Woo, C.K. & Shiu, A. & Liu, Y. & Luo, X. & Zarnikau, J., 2018. "Consumption effects of an electricity decarbonization policy: Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 887-902.
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    13. Woo, C.K. & Chen, Y. & Olson, A. & Moore, J. & Schlag, N. & Ong, A. & Ho, T., 2017. "Electricity price behavior and carbon trading: New evidence from California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 531-543.

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