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Carbon trading’s impact on California’s real-time electricity market prices

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  • Woo, C.K.
  • Chen, Y.
  • Zarnikau, J.
  • Olson, A.
  • Moore, J.
  • Ho, T.

Abstract

What is the extent of a real-time electricity market’s pass-through of the marginal cost of CO2 emissions due to a cap-and-trade (C&T) program? This is an important policy question, as an incomplete pass-through would suggest the program’s limited effectiveness in achieving efficient pricing of electricity. To answer the question, we perform a regression analysis of California’s electricity market data for a 65-month period of 01/01/2011–05/31/2016. Based on this newly constructed large sample, we find that the California Independent System Operator’s real-time market prices contain a CO2 premium that closely tracks the marginal cost of CO2 emissions of California’s natural-gas-fired generation units, which are often at margin that determines the power prices. While the CO2 premium provides much needed incentives for renewable energy development, it does little to improve the incentive for natural-gas-fired generation investment in California. Hence, procurement of dispatchable generation capacity via long-term contracts continues to be useful for the state to meet the mandatory criteria for resource adequacy and system reliability.

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  • Woo, C.K. & Chen, Y. & Zarnikau, J. & Olson, A. & Moore, J. & Ho, T., 2018. "Carbon trading’s impact on California’s real-time electricity market prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 579-587.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:159:y:2018:i:c:p:579-587
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.06.188
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    Cited by:

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    6. Satoshi Nakano & Ayu Washizu, 2021. "Analysis of inter-regional effects caused by the wide-area operation of the power grid in Japan: an implication for carbon pricing schemes," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 23(3), pages 535-556, July.
    7. Li, Raymond & Woo, Chi-Keung & Cox, Kevin, 2021. "How price-responsive is residential retail electricity demand in the US?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    8. Zarnikau, J. & Woo, C.K. & Zhu, S. & Tsai, C.H., 2019. "Market price behavior of wholesale electricity products: Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 418-428.
    9. Wang, Longze & Liu, Jinxin & Yuan, Rongfang & Wu, Jing & Zhang, Delong & Zhang, Yan & Li, Meicheng, 2020. "Adaptive bidding strategy for real-time energy management in multi-energy market enhanced by blockchain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    10. Wang, Haibing & Zheng, Tianhang & Sun, Weiqing & Khan, Muhammad Qasim, 2023. "Research on the pricing strategy of park electric vehicle agent considering carbon trading," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    11. Li, Raymond & Woo, Chi-Keung & Tishler, Asher & Zarnikau, Jay, 2022. "How price responsive is industrial demand for natural gas in the United States?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
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