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A Class of Marked Point Processes for Modelling Electricity Prices

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    Abstract

    This paper presents a family of processes to model electricity spot prices in deregulated markets. Besides mean-reversion, a property they share with other comodities, power prices exhibit the unique feature of spikes in trajectories. We introduce a class of discontinuous processes exhibiting a « jump-reversion » component to properly represent these sharp upward moves shortly followed by drops of similar magnitude. Our approach allows to capture – for the first time to our knowledge – both the trajectorial and statistical properties of electricity pool prices. The quality of the fitting is illustrated on a database of major US power markets.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School in its series ESSEC Working Papers with number DR 03004.

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    Length: 69 pages
    Date of creation: Mar 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-03004

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    Postal: ESSEC Research Center, BP 105, 95021 Cergy, France
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    Web page: http://www.essec.edu/
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    Related research

    Keywords: electricity prices; deregulated market; price risk; statistical models; US power markets;

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    1. Robert S. Pindyck, 1999. "The Long-Run Evolutions of Energy Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-27.
    2. Andrew W. Lo, . "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Generalized Ito Processes with Discretely Sampled Data," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-86, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    3. Alvaro Escribano & J. Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2011. "Modelling Electricity Prices: International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 622-650, October.
    4. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni & Jesper Lund, 2001. "An Empirical Investigation of Continuous-Time Equity Return Models," NBER Working Papers 8510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. M. T. Barlow, 2002. "A Diffusion Model For Electricity Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 287-298.
    6. Bryan Routledge & Duane Seppi & Chester Spatt, . "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," GSIA Working Papers 1997-50, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    7. Litzenberger, Robert H & Rabinowitz, Nir, 1995. " Backwardation in Oil Futures Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1517-45, December.
    8. Ball, Clifford A. & Torous, Walter N., 1983. "A Simplified Jump Process for Common Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 53-65, March.
    9. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, 06.
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    Cited by:
    1. Rafal Weron, 2005. "Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options," Econometrics 0502003, EconWPA.
    2. Falbo, Paolo & Fattore, Marco & Stefani, Silvana, 2010. "A new index for electricity spot markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 2739-2750, June.

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