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Modelling and measuring price discovery in commodity markets

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  • Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti
  • Jesus Gonzalo

Abstract

In this paper we present an equilibrium model of commodity spot (St) and future (Ft) prices, with finite elasticity of arbitrage services and convenience yields. By explicitly incorporating and modeling endogenously the convenience yield, our theoretical model is able to capture the existence of backwardation or contango in the long-run spot-future equilibrium relationship, (St-ß2Ft ). When the slope of the cointegrating vector ß2>1 (ß2

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa in its series Business Economics Working Papers with number wb074510.

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Date of creation: May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cte:wbrepe:wb074510

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  1. Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti & Christopher L. Gilbert, 2005. "Price discovery in the aluminium market," Department of Economics Working Papers 0506, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  2. Baillie, Richard T. & Geoffrey Booth, G. & Tse, Yiuman & Zabotina, Tatyana, 2002. "Price discovery and common factor models," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-321, July.
  3. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
  4. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 23-42, March.
  5. Bingcheng Yan & Eric Zivot, 2007. "The Dynamics of Price Discovery," Working Papers UWEC-2005-01-R, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2007.
  6. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-97, May.
  7. Sapp, Stephen G., 2002. "Price Leadership in the Spot Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(03), pages 425-448, September.
  8. deB. Harris, Frederick H. & McInish, Thomas H. & Wood, Robert A., 2002. "Security price adjustment across exchanges: an investigation of common factor components for Dow stocks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 277-308, July.
  9. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
  10. Litzenberger, Robert H & Rabinowitz, Nir, 1995. " Backwardation in Oil Futures Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1517-45, December.
  11. Roger D. Huang, 2002. "The Quality of ECN and Nasdaq Market Maker Quotes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1285-1319, 06.
  12. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. " One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-99, September.
  13. Bryan R. Routledge & Duane J. Seppi & Chester S. Spatt, 2000. "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1297-1338, 06.
  14. John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1972, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  15. Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2005. "Stochastic Convenience Yield Implied from Commodity Futures and Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2283-2331, October.
  16. Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. " Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-76, July.
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro, 2013. "Price discovery and trade fragmentation in a multi-market environment: Evidence from the MTS system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 227-240.
  2. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2011. "Hedging vs. speculative pressures on commodity futures returns," MPRA Paper 28229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Guglielmo Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2010. "Time-varying spot and futures oil price dynamics," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 75/2010, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia, Finanza e Statistica.
  4. Silvério, Renan & Szklo, Alexandre, 2012. "The effect of the financial sector on the evolution of oil prices: Analysis of the contribution of the futures market to the price discovery process in the WTI spot market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1799-1808.
  5. Stoyu Ivanov, 2013. "The influence of ETFs on the price discovery of gold, silver and oil," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 453-462, July.
  6. Ivanov, Stoyu I. & Jones, Frank J. & Zaima, Janis K., 2013. "Analysis of DJIA, S&P 500, S&P 400, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 ETFs and their influence on price discovery," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 171-187.
  7. Cifarelli, Giulio, 2013. "Smooth transition regime shifts and oil price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 160-167.
  8. Grammig, Joachim G. & Peter, Franziska J., 2008. "International price discovery in the presence of market microstructure effects," CFR Working Papers 08-10, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  9. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
  10. Bruce Mizrach & Yoichi Otsubo, 2010. "The Market Microstructure of the European Climate Exchange," Departmental Working Papers 201005, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  11. Wang, Jianxin & Yang, Minxian, 2011. "Housewives of Tokyo versus the gnomes of Zurich: Measuring price discovery in sequential markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 82-108, February.
  12. Yang, Linghubo & Zhang, Dongxiang, 2013. "Can futures price be a powerful predictor? Frequency domain analysis on Chinese commodity market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 264-271.

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