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Modelling and measuring price discovery in commodity markets

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  • Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel
  • Gonzalo, Jesús

Abstract

In this paper we present an equilibrium model of commodity spot () and futures () prices, with finite elasticity of arbitrage services and convenience yields. By explicitly incorporating and modelling endogenously the convenience yield, our theoretical model is able to capture the existence of backwardation or contango in the long-run spot-futures equilibrium relationship, . When the slope of the cointegrating vector [beta]2>1([beta]2

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 158 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Pages: 95-107

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:158:y:2010:i:1:p:95-107

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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Keywords: Backwardation Cointegration Commodity markets Contango Convenience yield Futures prices Permanent-Transitory decomposition Price discovery;

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References

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  4. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. " One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-99, September.
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  6. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 23-42, March.
  7. Baillie, Richard T. & Geoffrey Booth, G. & Tse, Yiuman & Zabotina, Tatyana, 2002. "Price discovery and common factor models," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-321, July.
  8. Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  9. Roger D. Huang, 2002. "The Quality of ECN and Nasdaq Market Maker Quotes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1285-1319, 06.
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  12. Litzenberger, Robert H & Rabinowitz, Nir, 1995. " Backwardation in Oil Futures Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1517-45, December.
  13. Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti & Christopher L. Gilbert, 2005. "Price discovery in the aluminium market," Department of Economics Working Papers 0506, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  14. deB. Harris, Frederick H. & McInish, Thomas H. & Wood, Robert A., 2002. "Security price adjustment across exchanges: an investigation of common factor components for Dow stocks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 277-308, July.
  15. Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2005. "Stochastic Convenience Yield Implied from Commodity Futures and Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2283-2331, October.
  16. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-97, May.
  17. Bingcheng Yan & Eric Zivot, 2007. "The Dynamics of Price Discovery," Working Papers UWEC-2005-01-R, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2007.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Allessandro Girardi, 2010. "Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 988, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Cifarelli, Giulio, 2013. "Smooth transition regime shifts and oil price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 160-167.
  3. Mizrach, Bruce & Otsubo, Yoichi, 2014. "The market microstructure of the European climate exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 107-116.
  4. Yang, Linghubo & Zhang, Dongxiang, 2013. "Can futures price be a powerful predictor? Frequency domain analysis on Chinese commodity market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 264-271.
  5. Marcel Gorenflo, 2013. "Futures price dynamics of CO 2 emission allowances," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1025-1047, December.
  6. Grammig, Joachim G. & Peter, Franziska J., 2008. "International price discovery in the presence of market microstructure effects," CFR Working Papers 08-10, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  7. Stoyu Ivanov, 2013. "The influence of ETFs on the price discovery of gold, silver and oil," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 453-462, July.
  8. Wang, Jianxin & Yang, Minxian, 2011. "Housewives of Tokyo versus the gnomes of Zurich: Measuring price discovery in sequential markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 82-108, February.
  9. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro, 2013. "Price discovery and trade fragmentation in a multi-market environment: Evidence from the MTS system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 227-240.
  10. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
  11. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2011. "Hedging vs. speculative pressures on commodity futures returns," MPRA Paper 28229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Silvério, Renan & Szklo, Alexandre, 2012. "The effect of the financial sector on the evolution of oil prices: Analysis of the contribution of the futures market to the price discovery process in the WTI spot market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1799-1808.
  13. Ivanov, Stoyu I. & Jones, Frank J. & Zaima, Janis K., 2013. "Analysis of DJIA, S&P 500, S&P 400, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 ETFs and their influence on price discovery," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 171-187.
  14. Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti Garrigues & Chris L. Gilbert & Jieqin Yan, 2014. "Copper Price Discovery on Comex, the LME and the SHFE, 2001-2013," Business Economics Working Papers wb140402, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.

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