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Modelling and measuring price discovery in commodity markets

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  • Figuerola-Ferretti, Isabel
  • Gonzalo, Jesús

Abstract

In this paper we present an equilibrium model of commodity spot () and futures () prices, with finite elasticity of arbitrage services and convenience yields. By explicitly incorporating and modelling endogenously the convenience yield, our theoretical model is able to capture the existence of backwardation or contango in the long-run spot-futures equilibrium relationship, . When the slope of the cointegrating vector [beta]2>1([beta]2

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 158 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (September)
Pages: 95-107

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:158:y:2010:i:1:p:95-107

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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Keywords: Backwardation Cointegration Commodity markets Contango Convenience yield Futures prices Permanent-Transitory decomposition Price discovery;

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References

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  1. Bryan R. Routledge & Duane J. Seppi & Chester S. Spatt, 2000. "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1297-1338, 06.
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  4. Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti & Christopher L. Gilbert, 2005. "Price discovery in the aluminium market," Department of Economics Working Papers 0506, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
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  6. Campbell, John & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006. "Efficient tests of stock return predictability," Scholarly Articles 3122601, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Baillie, Richard T. & Geoffrey Booth, G. & Tse, Yiuman & Zabotina, Tatyana, 2002. "Price discovery and common factor models," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 309-321, July.
  8. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 23-42, March.
  9. Litzenberger, Robert H & Rabinowitz, Nir, 1995. " Backwardation in Oil Futures Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1517-45, December.
  10. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679, September.
  11. Roger D. Huang, 2002. "The Quality of ECN and Nasdaq Market Maker Quotes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1285-1319, 06.
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  13. Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. " Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-76, July.
  14. Jaime Casassus & Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2005. "Stochastic Convenience Yield Implied from Commodity Futures and Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2283-2331, October.
  15. Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-97, May.
  16. Bingcheng Yan & Eric Zivot, 2007. "The Dynamics of Price Discovery," Working Papers UWEC-2005-01-R, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2007.
  17. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. " One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-99, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alessandro Girardi, 2011. "Price Discovery and Trade Fragmentation in a Multi-Market Environment: Evidence from the MTS System," CESifo Working Paper Series 3525, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Ivanov, Stoyu I. & Jones, Frank J. & Zaima, Janis K., 2013. "Analysis of DJIA, S&P 500, S&P 400, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 ETFs and their influence on price discovery," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 171-187.
  3. Silvério, Renan & Szklo, Alexandre, 2012. "The effect of the financial sector on the evolution of oil prices: Analysis of the contribution of the futures market to the price discovery process in the WTI spot market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1799-1808.
  4. Koop, Gary & Tole, Lise, 2013. "Modeling the relationship between European carbon permits and certified emission reductions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 166-181.
  5. Stoyu Ivanov, 2013. "The influence of ETFs on the price discovery of gold, silver and oil," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 453-462, July.
  6. Bruce Mizrach & Yoichi Otsubo, 2010. "The Market Microstructure of the European Climate Exchange," Departmental Working Papers 201005, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  7. Grammig, Joachim G. & Peter, Franziska J., 2008. "International price discovery in the presence of market microstructure effects," CFR Working Papers 08-10, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2014. "Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 78-97, 02.
  9. Marcel Gorenflo, 2013. "Futures price dynamics of CO 2 emission allowances," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1025-1047, December.
  10. Wang, Jianxin & Yang, Minxian, 2011. "Housewives of Tokyo versus the gnomes of Zurich: Measuring price discovery in sequential markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 82-108, February.
  11. Cifarelli, Giulio, 2013. "Smooth transition regime shifts and oil price dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 160-167.
  12. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2011. "Hedging vs. speculative pressures on commodity futures returns," MPRA Paper 28229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti Garrigues & Chris L. Gilbert & Jieqin Yan, 2014. "Copper Price Discovery on Comex, the LME and the SHFE, 2001-2013," Business Economics Working Papers wb140402, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
  14. Yang, Linghubo & Zhang, Dongxiang, 2013. "Can futures price be a powerful predictor? Frequency domain analysis on Chinese commodity market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 264-271.

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