Convenience yield and inventory accessibility: Impact of regional market conditions

The theory of storage predicts that convenience yield and inventory level of the same commodity are in an inverse relationship. Conceptually, inventories which are readily accessible by market participants at a given location drive the perceived benefits of owning the physical commodity. The price hike observed in the global base metal markets especially during the pre- and post-global financial crisis period is largely attributed to an exponential consumption growth in Asian countries. Geographical location, according to our study, affects the explanatory power of inventories for changes in convenience yield perceived by market participants at a certain location. In particular, we use data for three different regions, namely, Asia, Americas and Europe, for six major base metals. We test whether one certain region explains the changes of convenience yield better than other regions. Our results indicate that the Asian region is more informative than other regions and thereby accessible inventories are likely to have a stronger impact on the perceived convenience yield.