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The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns

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Author Info
Gary B. Gorton
Fumio Hayashi
K. Geert Rouwenhorst

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Abstract

Commodity futures risk premiums vary across commodities and over time depending on the level of physical inventories, as predicted by the Theory of Storage. Using a comprehensive dataset on 31 commodity futures and physical inventories between 1969 and 2006, we show that the convenience yield is a decreasing, non-linear relationship of inventories. Price measures, such as the futures basis, prior futures returns, and spot returns reflect the state of inventories and are informative about commodity futures risk premiums. The excess returns to Spot and Futures Momentum and Backwardation strategies stem in part from the selection of commodities when inventories are low. Positions of futures markets participants are correlated with prices and inventory signals, but we reject the Keynesian "hedging pressure" hypothesis that these positions are an important determinant of risk premiums.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13249.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13249

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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  1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. " Business Cycles and the Behavior of Metals Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1075-93, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bryan R. Routledge & Duane J. Seppi & Chester S. Spatt, 2000. "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1297-1338, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Geczy, Christopher & Minton, Bernadette A & Schrand, Catherine, 1997. " Why Firms Use Currency Derivatives," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1323-54, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ng, Victor K & Pirrong, Stephen Craig, 1994. "Fundamentals and Volatility: Storage, Spreads, and the Dynamics of Metals Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 203-30, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1987. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums,and the Theory of Storage," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 55-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Frans A. de Roon & Theo E. Nijman & Chris Veld, 2000. "Hedging Pressure Effects in Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1437-1456, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Chang, Eric C, 1985. " Returns to Speculators and the Theory of Normal Backwardation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 193-208, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Carter, Colin A & Rausser, Gordon C & Schmitz, Andrew, 1983. "Efficient Asset Portfolios and the Theory of Normal Backwardation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 319-31, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Dusak, Katherine, 1973. "Futures Trading and Investor Returns: An Investigation of Commodity Market Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1387-1406, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992. "Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 637-67. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Jagannathan, Ravi, 1985. " An Investigation of Commodity Futures Prices Using the Consumption-based Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 175-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Fagan, Stephen & Gencay, Ramazan, 2008. "Liquidity-Induced Dynamics in Futures Markets," MPRA Paper 6677, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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