Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Commodity Booms and Busts

Contents:

Author Info

  • Colin A. Carter

    () (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, California 95616, Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics, University of California)

  • Gordon C. Rausser

    () (Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics, University of California, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720)

  • Aaron Smith

    () (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, California 95616, Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics, University of California)

Abstract

Periodically, the global economy experiences great commodity booms and busts, characterized by a broad and sharp comovement of commodity prices. There have been two such episodes since the Korean War. The first event peaked in 1974 and the second in 2008, 34 years apart. Both created major economic and political shocks, including fallen governments and human suffering due to high food prices. Each occurrence raised serious concerns over food and energy security and led to more government intervention in the commodity markets. Although there is no simple explanation for what causes such complex events, they do share similar characteristics. We find at the core of these cycles a set of contemporaneous supply and demand surprises that coincided with low inventories and that were magnified by macroeconomic shocks and policy responses. In the next few decades, the world faces the prospect of continued increases in the demand for commodities and greater uncertainty about supply. However, because market participants are likely to respond by increasing inventory holdings and investing in new technologies, we see no reason to expect an increase in the frequency of dramatic commodity booms and busts.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.resource.012809.104220
Download Restriction: Full text downloads are only available to subscribers. Visit the abstract page for more information.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Annual Reviews in its journal Annual Review of Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 3 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (October)
Pages: 87-118

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:anr:reseco:v:3:y:2011:p:87-118

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Annual Reviews 4139 El Camino Way Palo Alto, CA 94306, USA
Web page: http://www.annualreviews.org

Order Information:
Web: http://www.annualreviews.org/action/ecommerce

Related research

Keywords: commodity markets; asset bubbles; oil prices; food price crisis; speculation; inventories;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
  2. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1980. " Hedging and Joint Production: Theory and Illustrations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 487-98, May.
  3. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1173-89, December.
  4. Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989. "On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices," Papers 145, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  5. Rausser, Gordon C. & Walraven, Nicholas A., 1990. "Linkages among commodity futures markets and dynamic welfare analysis," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt3p3028t6, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  6. Friedman, Daniel & Aoki, Masanao, 1986. "Asset price bubbles from poorly aggregated information : A parametric example," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 49-52.
  7. Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi & Yu-chin Chen, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," 2008 Meeting Papers 540, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Weinstein, Milton C & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 1975. "The Optimal Consumption of Depletable Natural Resources," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 371-92, August.
  9. Bryan R. Routledge & Duane J. Seppi & Chester S. Spatt, 2000. "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1297-1338, 06.
  10. Grossman, Sanford J, 1977. "The Existence of Futures Markets, Noisy Rational Expectations and Informational Externalities," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 431-49, October.
  11. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  12. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Symposium on Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 13-18, Spring.
  13. Anderson, Kym & Nelgen, Signe, 2010. "How do governments respond to food price spikes ? lessons from the past," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5403, The World Bank.
  14. Sayed H. Saghaian & Michael R. Reed & Mary A. Marchant, 2002. "Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in an Open Economy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(1), pages 90-103.
  15. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
  16. Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring.
  17. Pindyck, Robert S, 1980. "Uncertainty and Exhaustible Resource Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1203-25, December.
  18. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
  19. Murray Carlson & Zeigham Khokher & Sheridan Titman, 2006. "Equilibrium Exhaustible Resource Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 12000, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Salant, Stephen W, 1983. "The Vulnerability of Price Stabilization Schemes to Speculative Attack," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-38, February.
  21. Piesse, Jenifer & Thirtle, Colin, 2009. "Three bubbles and a panic: An explanatory review of recent food commodity price events," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 119-129, April.
  22. Carter, Colin A. & Rausser, Gordon C. & Schmitz, Andrew, 1982. "Efficient asset portfolios and the theory of normal backwardation," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt59c8m4x6, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  23. Margaret E. Slade & Henry Thille, 2009. "Whither Hotelling: Tests of the Theory of Exhaustible Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 239-259, 09.
  24. Deaton, Angus & Laroque, Guy, 1995. "Estimating a Nonlinear Rational Expectations Commodity Price Model with Unobservable State Variables," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(S), pages S9-40, Suppl. De.
  25. Colin A. Carter & Cesar L. Revoredo-Giha, 2009. "Eastham's commodity storage model in a modern context," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 801-822, October.
  26. Frans A. de Roon & Theo E. Nijman & Chris Veld, 2000. "Hedging Pressure Effects in Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1437-1456, 06.
  27. Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1990. "On Testing for Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 85-101, Spring.
  28. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425.
  29. Chunrong Ai & Arjun Chatrath & Frank Song, 2006. "On the Comovement of Commodity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(3), pages 574-588.
  30. Camerer, Colin, 1989. " Bubbles and Fads in Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 3-41.
  31. Trostle, Ronald, 2008. "Factors Contributing to Recent Increases in Food Commodity Prices (PowerPoint)," Seminars 43902, USDA Economists Group.
  32. Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1996. "Competitive storage and commodity price dynamics," Open Access publications from University College London http://discovery.ucl.ac.u, University College London.
  33. Miranda, Mario J & Helmberger, Peter G, 1988. "The Effects of Commodity Price Stabilization Programs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 46-58, March.
  34. Brennan, Donna & Williams, Jeffrey & Wright, Brian D, 1997. "Convenience Yield without the Convenience: A Spatial-Temporal Interpretation of Storage under Backwardation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 1009-22, July.
  35. Radetzki, Marian, 2006. "The anatomy of three commodity booms," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 56-64, March.
  36. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1995. "Financial Markets and Monetary Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061740.
  37. Martin, Will & Anderson, Kym, 2011. "Export restrictions and price insulation during commodity price booms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5645, The World Bank.
  38. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
  39. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399.
  40. Shih-wen Hu & Vey Wang, 1996. "Commodity Price Dynamics and Anticipated Shocks," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 982-990.
  41. Newbery, David M G & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1982. "The Choice of Techniques and the Optimality of Market Equilibrium with Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(2), pages 223-46, April.
  42. Hirshleifer, David, 1988. "Risk, Futures Pricing, and the Organization of Production in Commodity Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(6), pages 1206-20, December.
  43. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-57, April.
  44. Franken, Jason R.V. & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2009. "Is Storage at a Loss Merely an Illusion of Spatial Aggregation?," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 27.
  45. Albert Park, 2006. "Risk and Household Grain Management in Developing Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(514), pages 1088-1115, October.
  46. Cynthia Lin, C.-Y. & Wagner, Gernot, 2007. "Steady-state growth in a Hotelling model of resource extraction," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 68-83, July.
  47. Lester G. Telser, 1958. "Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 233.
  48. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  49. Katharina Wick & Erwin Bulte, 2009. "The Curse of Natural Resources," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 139-156, 09.
  50. Cafiero, Carlo & Bobenrieth H., Eugenio S.A. & Bobenrieth H., Juan R.A. & Wright, Brian D., 2011. "The empirical relevance of the competitive storage model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 44-54, May.
  51. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  52. Phelps, Edmund S, 1978. "Commodity-Supply Shock and Full-Employment Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(2), pages 206-21, May.
  53. Colin A. Carter & Cesar L. Revoredo Giha, 2007. "The Working Curve and Commodity Storage under Backwardation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(4), pages 864-872.
  54. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1992. "Systematic Risk, Hedging Pressure, and Risk Premiums in Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(4), pages 637-67.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Janda, Karel & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Zilberman, David, 2011. "Biofuels: Review of Policies and Impacts," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt5v1112qr, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  2. Rausser, Gordon C. & de Gorter, Harry, 2013. "US policy contributions to agricultural commodity price fluctuations, 2006.12," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  3. Karel Janda & Ladislav Kristoufek & David Zilberman, 2011. "Modeling the Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts of Biofuels," Working Papers IES 2011/33, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2011.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anr:reseco:v:3:y:2011:p:87-118

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (http://www.annualreviews.org).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.