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Explaining the Persistence of Commodity Prices

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  • Serena Ng

    ()
    (Boston College)

  • Francisco Ruge-Murcia

    (Universite de Montreal)

Abstract

This paper extends the Competitive Storage Model by incorporating prominent features of the production process and financial markets. A major limitation of this basic model is that it cannot successfully explain the degree of serial correlation observed in actual data. The proposed extensions build on the observation that in order to generate a high degree of price persistence, a model must incorporate features such that agents are willing to hold stocks more often than predicted by the basic model. We therefore allow unique characteristics of the production and trading mechanisms to provide the required incentives. Specifically, the proposed models introduce (i) gestation lags in production with heteroskedastic supply shocks, (ii) multiperiod forward contracts, and (iii) a convenience return to inventory holding. The rational expectations solutions for twelve commodities are numerically solved. Simulations are then employed to assess the effects of the above extensions on the time series properties of commodity prices. Results indicate that each of the features above partially account for the persistence and occasional spikes observed in actual data. Evidence is presented that the precautionary demand for stocks might play a substantial role in the dynamics of commodity prices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 374.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 01 Apr 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:374

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Keywords: commodity prices; persistence; speculative storage;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Eyal Dvir & Ken Rogoff, 2009. "The Three Epochs of Oil," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 706, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Luca Pieroni & Matteo Ricciarelli, 2005. "Modelling Dynamic Storage Function in Commodity Markets:Theory and Evidence," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 11/2005, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia, Finanza e Statistica.
  3. Loening, Josef L. & Durevall, Dick & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in an Agricultural Economy: The Case of Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 347, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  4. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2012. "Commodity volatility breaks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 395-422.
  5. Sklavos, Konstantinos & Dam, Lammertjan & Scholtens, Bert, 2013. "The liquidity of energy stocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 168-175.
  6. Ashima Goyal & Shruti Tripathi, 2012. "Regulations and price discovery: oil spot and futures markets," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-016, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
  7. Nishimura, Kazuo & Stachurski, John, 2009. "Equilibrium storage with multiple commodities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 80-96, January.
  8. Eyal Dvir & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Three Epochs of Oil," NBER Working Papers 14927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Power, Gabriel J. & Turvey, Calum G., 2008. "On Term Structure Models of Commodity Futures Prices and the Kaldor-Working Hypothesis," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37608, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  10. Melisso Boschi & Luca Pieroni, 2008. "Aluminium market and the macroeconomy," Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia, Finanza e Statistica 42/2008, Università di Perugia, Dipartimento Economia, Finanza e Statistica.
  11. Moledina, Amyaz A. & Roe, Terry L. & Shane, Mathew, 2004. "Measuring Commodity Price Volatility And The Welfare Consequences Of Eliminating Volatility," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 19963, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  12. Dufresne, Daniel & Vázquez-Abad, Felisa, 2012. "Cobweb theorems with production lags and price forecasting," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-17, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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