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The Present Value Model of Rational Commodity Pricing

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Author Info
Pindyck, Robert S

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Abstract

The present value model relates an asset's price to the sum of its discounted expected future payoffs. The author explores the limits of the model by testing its ability to explain the pricing of storable commodities. For commodities the payoff stream is the convenience yield that accrues from holding inventories, and it can be measured directly from spot and futures prices. Hence the model imposes restrictions on the joint dynamics of spot and futures prices, which the author tests for four commodities. He finds close conformance to the model for heating oil, but not for copper or lumber, and especially not for gold. The pattern is the same for the serial dependence of excess returns. These results suggest that for three of the four commodities, prices at least temporarily deviate from fundamentals. Copyright 1993 by Royal Economic Society.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 103 (1993)
Issue (Month): 418 (May)
Pages: 511-30
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:103:y:1993:i:418:p:511-30

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Deaton, A. & Laroque, G., 1989. "On The Behavior Of Commodity Prices," Papers 145, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
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  2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. " Business Cycles and the Behavior of Metals Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1075-93, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. French, Kenneth R., 1983. "A comparison of futures and forward prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 311-342, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Pindyck, Robert S., 1990. "Inventories and the short-run dynamics of commodity prices," Working papers 3133-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  5. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. James MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 90-4, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  7. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1991. "Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 455-77, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kahn, James A, 1992. "Why Is Production More Volatile Than Sales? Theory and Evidence on the Stockout-Avoidance Motive for Inventory-Holding," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 481-510, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Cutler, David M & Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 529-46, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Dusak, Katherine, 1973. "Futures Trading and Investor Returns: An Investigation of Commodity Market Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1387-1406, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1993. "The Comovement of Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1073-1104, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Antonio Spilimbergo, 1995. "Testing the Hypothesis of Collusive Behavior Among OPEC Members," RES Working Papers 4016, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Robert S. Pindyck, 2003. "Volatility In Natural Gas And Oil Markets," Working Papers 0312, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Antonio Spilimbergo, 1995. "Prueba de la hipótesis de comportamiento colusivo entre los miembros de la OPEP," RES Working Papers 4017, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. Severin Borenstein & Andrea Shepard, 1996. "Sticky Prices, Inventories, and Market Power in Wholesale Gasoline Markets," NBER Working Papers 5468, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Emilie Alberola & Julien Pierre Chevallier, 2007. "European carbon prices and banking restrictions: evidence from phase I (2005-2007)," EconomiX Working Papers 2007-32, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Serena Ng & Francisco Ruge-Murcia, 1997. "Explaining the Persistence of Commodity Prices," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 374, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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