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What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns

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Author Info
John Y. Campbell
John Ammer

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Abstract

This paper uses a log-linear asset pricing framework and a vector autoregressive model to break down movements in stock and bond returns into changes in expectations of future stock dividends, inflation, short-term real interest rates, and excess returns on stocks and bonds. In monthly postwar U.S. data, excess stock returns are found to be driven largely by news about future excess stock returns, while excess 10-year bond returns are driven largely by news about future inflation. Real interest rate changes have little impact on either stock or 10-year bond returns, although they do affect the short-term nominal interest rate and the slope of the term structure. These findings help to explain why postwar excess stock and bond returns have been almost uncorrelated.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3760.

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Date of creation: Jun 1991
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Publication status: published as Journal of Finance, vol 48, March 1993, p.3-37
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3760

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  1. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 2762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Matthew Richardson & James H. Stock, 1990. "Drawing Inferences From Statistics Based on Multi-Year Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 3335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Culter, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "Speculative Dynamics," Working papers 544, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  5. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1983. "A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 1203, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Charles R. Nelson & Myung J. Kim, 1990. "Predictable Stock Returns: Reality or Statistical Illusion?," NBER Working Papers 3297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-76, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Robert J. Shiller & J. Huston McCulloch, 1987. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Nelson, C.R. & Kim, M.J., 1990. "Predictable Stock Returns: Reality Or Statistical Illusion?," Working Papers 90-15, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  20. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Litterman, Robert B & Weiss, Laurence M, 1985. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 129-56, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Fama, Eugene F., 1990. "Term-structure forecasts of interest rates, inflation and real returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 59-76, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-79, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1988. "Time-Variation in Expected Returns," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 409-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1989. "What Moves Stock Prices?," NBER Working Papers 2538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Nelson, C.R. & Kim, M.J., 1990. "Predictable Stock Returns: Reality Or Statistical Illusion?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 90-15, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  28. Campbell, John Y, 1990. "Measuring the Persistence of Expected Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 43-47, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  29. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Gibbons, Michael R., 1989. "On the volatility of bond prices," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 139-175, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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