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Stock Prices and Bond Yields: Can Their Comovements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?

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Author Info
Robert J. Shiller
Andrea E. Beltratti

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Abstract

Real stock prices seem to overreact to changes in long-term interest rates. That is, real stock prices drop when long-term interest rates rise (and rise when they fall) more than would be implied by a rational expectations present value model where expectations are based on a vector autoregression. This overreaction is not associated with any overreaction to changes in the short-run inflation rate. Over the last century real stock prices have shown little reaction to changes in inflation rates, and according to the model they should show little reaction. These conclusions were reached from an analysis of annual data in the united states 1871 to 1989 and the united Kingdom 1918 to 1989.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3464.

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Date of creation: Apr 1993
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3464

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Barsky, Robert B, 1989. "Why Don't the Prices of Stocks and Bonds Move Together?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1132-45, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-76, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bulkley, George & Tonks, Ian, 1989. "Are U.K. Stock Prices Excessively Volatile? Trading Rules and Variance Bounds Tests," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(398), pages 1083-98, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Shiller, Robert J, 1988. "The Probability of Gross Violations of a Present Value Variance Inequality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 1089-92, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kleidon, Allan W, 1988. "The Probability of Gross Violations of a Present Value Variance Inequality: Reply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 1093-96, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Andrea E. Beltratti & Robert J. Shiller, 1994. "Actual and Warranted Relations Between Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 3640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Campbell, John Y, 1990. "Measuring the Persistence of Expected Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 43-47, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Chris Stivers & Licheng Sun, 2002. "Stock market uncertainty and the relation between stock and bond returns," Working Paper 2002-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  2. Francesco Menoncin & Paolo Panteghini, 2009. "Retrospective Capital Gains Taxation in the Real World," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  3. Andrew Clare & Ilias Lekkos, . "An analysis of the relationship between international bond markets," Bank of England working papers 123, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  4. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2009. "Non-linear predictability in stock and bond returns: when and where is it exploitable?," Working Papers 2008-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Andrea E. Beltratti & Robert J. Shiller, 1994. "Actual and Warranted Relations Between Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 3640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Chunsheng Zhou, 1996. "Stock market fluctuations and the term structure," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2007. "The determinants of stock and bond return comovements," Research series 200711-27, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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  9. John Y. Campbell & Adi Sunderam & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds," NBER Working Papers 14701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Andreas Reschreiter, 2004. "Risk factors of inflation-indexed and conventional government bonds and the APT," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 79, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  11. Juan Piñeiro Chousa, & Artur Tamazian, & Davit N. Melikyan,, 2008. "MARKET RISK DYNAMICS AND COMPETITIVENESS AFTER THE EURO: Evidence from EMU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp916, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  12. Sean D. Campbell & Morris A. Davis & Joshua Gallin & Robert F. Martin, 2006. "A trend and variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio in housing markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  13. Christiansen, Charlotte & Ranaldo, Angelo, 2005. "Realized Bond-Stock Correlation: Macroeconomic Announcement Effects," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2005-05, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Renatas Kizys & Peter Spencer, 2007. "Assessing the Relation between Equity Risk Premia and Macroeconomic Volatilities," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 140, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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