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Actual and Warranted Relations between Asset Prices

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  • Beltratti, Andrea E
  • Shiller, Robert J

Abstract

One method of testing efficient-markets present-value models for speculative asset prices has been to test whether the variance of price changes exceeds theoretical variance bounds implied by the models. This paper extends this method from variances to covariances, so that one can test whether pairs of speculative asset prices move together too much relative to bounds implied by the efficient-markets models. The new method is used to examine the historical covariance between the U.K. and U.S. stock markets, 1919-89. In this case, no evidence is found of excess covariance between the two markets. Copyright 1993 by Royal Economic Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Oxford Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 45 (1993)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 387-402

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Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:45:y:1993:i:3:p:387-402

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  1. Shiller, Robert J, 1989. " Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 719-29, July.
  2. Robert S. Pindyck & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1990. "Do Stock Prices Move Together Too Much?," NBER Working Papers 3324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Robert S. Pindyck & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1988. "The Excess Co-Movement of Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 2671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-33, July.
  5. Robert J. Shiller & Andrea E. Beltratti, 1990. "Stock Prices and Bond Yields: Can Their Comovements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?," NBER Working Papers 3464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
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Cited by:
  1. Dumas, Bernard & Harvey, Campbell R. & Ruiz, Pierre, 2003. "Are correlations of stock returns justified by subsequent changes in national outputs?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 777-811, November.
  2. Robert J. Shiller & Andrea E. Beltratti, 1990. "Stock Prices and Bond Yields: Can Their Comovements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?," NBER Working Papers 3464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Tsutsui, Yoshiro & Hirayama, Kenjiro, 2004. "Are international portfolio adjustments a cause of comovements in stock prices?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 463-478, September.
  4. Shiller, Robert J., 1995. "Aggregate income risks and hedging mechanisms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 119-152.
  5. J. Bradford De Long & Richard Grossman, 1992. "Excess Volatility on the London Stock Market, 1870-1990," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _133, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.

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