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Volatility spillovers and contagion from mature to emerging stock markets

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  • Beirne, John
  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria
  • Schulze-Ghattas, Marianne
  • Spagnolo, Nicola

Abstract

This paper models volatility spillovers from mature to emerging stock markets, tests for changes in the transmission mechanism during turbulences in mature markets, and examines the implications for conditional correlations between mature and emerging market returns. Tri-variate GARCH-BEKK models of returns in mature, regional emerging, and local emerging markets are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs). Wald tests suggest that mature market volatility affects conditional variances in many emerging markets. Moreover, spillover parameters change during turbulent episodes. In the majority of the sample EMEs, conditional correlations between local and mature markets increase during these episodes. While conditional variances in local markets rise as well, volatility in mature markets rises more, and this shift is the main factor behind the increase in conditional correlations. With few exceptions, conditional beta coefficients between mature and emerging markets tend to be unchanged or lower during turbulences. JEL Classification: F30, G15

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1113.

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Date of creation: Nov 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091113

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Keywords: Contagion; emerging markets; Stock Markets; Volatility spillovers;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kenji Moriyama, 2010. "The Spillover Effects of the Global Crisis on Economic Activity in MENA Emerging Market Countries-An Analysis Using the Financial Stress Index," IMF Working Papers 10/8, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Rodrigo Alfaro A. & Rodrigo Cifuentes S., 2009. "Financial Stability, Monetary Policy and Central Banking: An Overview," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 554, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "Sudden spikes in global risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 511-521.
  4. Jozef Barunik & Lukas Vacha & Ladislav Krištoufek, 2011. "Comovement of Central European stock markets using wavelet coherence: Evidence from high-frequency data," Working Papers IES 2011/22, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jun 2011.
  5. Jan Novotný & Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2013. "Price Jump Indicators: Stock Market Empirics During the Crisis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1050, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  6. Andreou, Elena & Matsi, Maria & Savvides, Andreas, 2013. "Stock and foreign exchange market linkages in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 248-268.
  7. Gilles Dufrénot & Benjamin Keddad & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2010. "Financial spillovers from the US financial markets to the emerging markets during the subprime crisis: the example of Indian equity markets," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2010-34, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  8. Beirne, John & Gieck, Jana, 2012. "Interdependence and contagion in global asset markets," Working Paper Series 1480, European Central Bank.
  9. Hong-Ghi Min & Young-Soon Hwang, 2012. "Dynamic correlation analysis of US financial crisis and contagion: evidence from four OECD countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(24), pages 2063-2074, December.
  10. Nathaniel Frank & Heiko Hesse, 2009. "Financial Spillovers to Emerging Markets during the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/104, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Morales, Lucía & Andreosso-O'Callaghan, Bernadette, 2014. "The global financial crisis: World market or regional contagion effects?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 108-131.
  12. Beirne, John & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Schulze-Ghattas, Marianne & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2010. "Global and regional spillovers in emerging stock markets: A multivariate GARCH-in-mean analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 250-260, September.
  13. Galin Todorov & Prasad Bidarkota, 2013. "On international financial spillovers to frontier markets," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 433-452.

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