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Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets

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  • John Beirne
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Marianne Schulze-Ghattas
  • Nicola Spagnolo

Abstract

This paper examines volatility spillovers from mature to emerging stock markets and tests for changes in the transmission mechanism-contagion-during turbulences in mature markets. Tri-variate GARCH-BEKK models of returns in global (mature), regional, and local markets are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs), with a dummy capturing parameter shifts during turbulent episodes. LR tests suggest that mature markets influence conditional variances in many emerging markets. Moreover, spillover parameters change during turbulent episodes. Conditional variances in most EMEs rise during these episodes, but there is only limited evidence of shifts in conditional correlations between mature and emerging markets.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.96648.de/dp873.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 873.

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Length: 24 p.
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp873

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Keywords: Volatility spillovers; contagion; stock markets; emerging markets;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Beirne, John & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Schulze-Ghattas, Marianne & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2010. "Global and regional spillovers in emerging stock markets: A multivariate GARCH-in-mean analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 250-260, September.
  2. Morales, Lucía & Andreosso-O'Callaghan, Bernadette, 2014. "The global financial crisis: World market or regional contagion effects?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 108-131.
  3. Guyot, Alexis & Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Neaime, Simon, 2014. "Foreign shocks and international cost of equity destabilization. Evidence from the MENA region," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 101-122.
  4. Gilles Dufrénot & Benjamin Keddad & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2010. "Financial spillovers from the US financial markets to the emerging markets during the subprime crisis: the example of Indian equity markets," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2010-34, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  5. Kenji Moriyama, 2010. "The Spillover Effects of the Global Crisison Economic Activity in Mena Emerging Market Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/8, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Nathaniel Frank & Heiko Hesse, 2009. "Financial Spillovers to Emerging Markets During the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/104, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Rodrigo A. Alfaro & Rodrigo Cifuentes S., 2011. "Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 1, pages 001-010 Central Bank of Chile.
  8. Hong-Ghi Min & Young-Soon Hwang, 2012. "Dynamic correlation analysis of US financial crisis and contagion: evidence from four OECD countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(24), pages 2063-2074, December.
  9. Jan Novotný & Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2013. "Price Jump Indicators: Stock Market Empirics During the Crisis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1050, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  10. Jozef Barunik & Lukas Vacha & Ladislav Krištoufek, 2011. "Comovement of Central European stock markets using wavelet coherence: Evidence from high-frequency data," Working Papers IES 2011/22, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jun 2011.
  11. Elena Andreou & Maria Matsi & Andreas Savvides, 2013. "Stock and Foreign Exchange Market Linkages in Emerging Economies," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 01-2013, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
  12. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "Sudden spikes in global risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 511-521.
  13. Beirne, John & Gieck, Jana, 2012. "Interdependence and contagion in global asset markets," Working Paper Series 1480, European Central Bank.
  14. Hartwell , Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies: a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  15. Galin Todorov & Prasad Bidarkota, 2013. "On international financial spillovers to frontier markets," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 433-452.

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