Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Global Crisis and Equity Market Contagion

Contents:

Author Info

  • Geert Bekaert
  • Micheal Ehrmann
  • Marcel Fratzscher
  • Arnaud Mehl

Abstract

We analyze the transmission of the financial crisis of 2007 to 2009 to 415 country-industry equity portfolios. We use a factor model to predict crisis returns, defining unexplained increases in factor loadings and residual correlations as indicative of contagion. While we find evidence of contagion from the U.S. and the global financial sector, the effects are small. By contrast, there has been substantial contagion from domestic markets to individual domestic portfolios, with its severity inversely related to the quality of countries' economic fundamentals. This confirms the "wake-up call" hypothesis, with markets focusing more on country-specific characteristics during the crisis.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.434767.de/dp1352.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 1352.

as in new window
Length: 50 p.
Date of creation: 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1352

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Mohrenstraße 58, D-10117 Berlin
Phone: xx49-30-89789-0
Fax: xx49-30-89789-200
Email:
Web page: http://www.diw.de/en
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: keywordscontagion; financial crisis; equity markets; global transmission; market integration; country risk; factor model; financial policies; FX reserves; current account;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. G. Andrew Karolyi, 2004. "Does International Financial Contagion Really Exist?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 16(2-3), pages 136-146.
  2. Connolly, Robert A. & Wang, F. Albert, 2003. "International equity market comovements: Economic fundamentals or contagion?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 23-43, January.
  3. Fernando A. Broner & R. Gaston Gelos & Carmen Reinhart, 2004. "When in peril, retrench: testing the portfolio channel of contagion," Working Paper Series 2004-28, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
  5. Calomiris, Charles W. & Love, Inessa & Martínez Pería, María Soledad, 2012. "Stock returns’ sensitivities to crisis shocks: Evidence from developed and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 743-765.
  6. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2011. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: an update," Working Paper Series 2011-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  8. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Linda L. Tesar, 2001. "Exchange Rate Exposure," NBER Working Papers 8453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Albuquerque, Rui & H. Bauer, Gregory & Schneider, Martin, 2009. "Global private information in international equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 18-46, October.
  11. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2005. "International Stock Return Comovements," Working Papers 06-3, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  12. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2009. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the 2008 crisis: international linkages and American exposure," Working Paper Series 2009-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  13. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Christian Daude & Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "The pecking order of cross-border investment," CGFS Papers chapters, Bank for International Settlements, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Research on global financial stability: the use of BIS international financial statistics, volume 29, pages 53-89 Bank for International Settlements.
  15. R Portes & H Rey, 2000. "The Determinants Of Cross-Border Equity Flows," CEP Discussion Papers dp0446, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  16. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
  17. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1995. "Emerging Equity Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 5307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1990. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 525-42, May.
  19. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2005. "The Properties of Automatic "GETS" Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages C32-C61, 03.
  20. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
  21. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 12939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler & Yu Yuan, 2009. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 37, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  23. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
  24. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
  25. John Ammer & Clara Vega & Jon Wongswan, 2010. "International Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Stock Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 179-198, 09.
  26. Szafarz, Ariane & Chapelle, Ariane & Brière, Marie, 2012. "No contagion, only globalization and flight to quality," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7746, Paris Dauphine University.
  27. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody & Milan Nedeljkovic & Lucio Sarno, 2012. "How the Subprime Crisis Went Global: Evidence from Bank Credit Default Swap Spreads," Working papers 21, National Bank of Serbia.
  28. Anja Shortland & Roberto Leon-Gonzalez & Amil Dasgupta, 2006. "Regionality Revisited: An Examination of the Direction of Spread of Currency Crises," FMG Discussion Papers, Financial Markets Group dp584, Financial Markets Group.
  29. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "What explains global exchange rate movements during the financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1390-1407, December.
  30. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2010. "Financial globalization, financial crises and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 24-39, January.
  31. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2003. "The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion," NBER Working Papers 10061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Michael J. Brennan. and H. Henry Cao., 1997. "International Portfolio Investment Flows," Research Program in Finance Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley RPF-271, University of California at Berkeley.
  33. Dumas, Bernard & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. " The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 445-79, June.
  34. Ahnert, Toni & Bertsch, Christoph, 2013. "A wake-up call: information contagion and strategic uncertainty," Working Paper Series 282, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Mar 2014.
  35. Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Roll, Richard, 2009. "Global market integration: An alternative measure and its application," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 214-232, November.
  36. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Robin Brooks & Marco Del Negro, 2003. "Firm-level evidence on international stock market movement," Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2003-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  38. Hui Tong & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "The Composition Matters: Capital Inflows and Liquidity Crunch during a Global Economic Crisis," NBER Working Papers 15207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2003. "Market Integration and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 9510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Baele, Lieven & Inghelbrecht, Koen, 2009. "Time-varying Integration and International diversification strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 368-387, June.
  41. Caramazza, Francesco & Ricci, Luca & Salgado, Ranil, 2004. "International financial contagion in currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-70, February.
  42. Baele, L., 2003. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research 2003-114, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  43. Albert S. Kyle, 2001. "Contagion as a Wealth Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1401-1440, 08.
  44. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Liquidity and leverage," Staff Reports 328, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  45. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Michael S. Weisbach, 2004. "The Cash Flow Sensitivity of Cash," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1777-1804, 08.
  46. Toni M. Whited & Guojun Wu, 2006. "Financial Constraints Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 531-559.
  47. Bodnar, Gordon & Dumas, Bernard & Marston, Richard, 2003. "Cross-Border Valuation: The International Cost of Equity Capital," Working Papers 03-3, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
  48. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2004. "Empirical Modeling of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 04/78, International Monetary Fund.
  49. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, 04.
  50. Bernard Dumas & Karen K. Lewis & Emilio Osambela, 2011. "Differences of Opinion and International Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 16726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Carrieri, Francesca & Errunza, Vihang & Hogan, Ked, 2007. "Characterizing World Market Integration through Time," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(04), pages 915-940, December.
  52. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
  53. Brian H. Boyer & Tomomi Kumagai & Kathy Yuan, 2006. "How Do Crises Spread? Evidence from Accessible and Inaccessible Stock Indices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 957-1003, 04.
  54. Almeida, Heitor & Campello, Murillo & Laranjeira, Bruno & Weisbenner, Scott, 2012. "Corporate Debt Maturity and the Real Effects of the 2007 Credit Crisis," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 3-58, January.
  55. Beltratti, Andrea & Stulz, René M., 2012. "The credit crisis around the globe: Why did some banks perform better?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 1-17.
  56. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. Robin Brooks & Marco Del Negro, 2003. "Firm-Level Evidenceon International Stock Market Comovement," IMF Working Papers 03/55, International Monetary Fund.
  58. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2003. "Spillovers through banking centers: a panel data analysis of bank flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 483-509, August.
  59. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August.
  60. Forbes, Kristin J., 2004. "The Asian flu and Russian virus: the international transmission of crises in firm-level data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-92, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1352. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.