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No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements

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Author Info
Kristin J. Forbes (Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Roberto Rigobon (Sloan School of Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

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Abstract

Heteroskedasticity biases tests for contagion based on correlation coefficients. When contagion is defined as a significant increase in market comovement after a shock to one country, previous work suggests contagion occurred during recent crises. This paper shows that correlation coefficients are conditional on market volatility. Under certain assumptions, it is possible to adjust for this bias. Using this adjustment, there was virtually no increase in unconditional correlation coefficients (i.e., no contagion) during the 1997 Asian crisis, 1994 Mexican devaluation, and 1987 U.S. market crash. There is a high level of market comovement in all periods, however, which we call interdependence. Copyright The American Finance Association 2002.

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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 57 (2002)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
Pages: 2223-2261
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:57:y:2002:i:5:p:2223-2261

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  1. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Allan Drazen, 1999. "Political Contagion in Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 7211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Paul Cashin & Manmohan S. Kumar & C. John McDermott, 1995. "International Integration of Equity Markets and Contagion Effects," IMF Working Papers 95/110, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Ray Yeu-Tien Chou & Victor Ng & Lynn K. Pi, 1994. "Cointegration of International Stock Market Indices," IMF Working Papers 94/94, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1995. "Contagious speculative attacks," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 45-63, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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