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Contagion: How to Measure It?

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Roberto Rigobon

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Abstract

The empirical literature on contagion has mainly measured the propagation of shocks across countries using daily stock markets, interest rates, and exchange rates. Several methodologies have been used for this purpose, however, the properties of the data introduces important limitations on the implementation of these procedures, as well as on the interpretation of the results. This paper, has three objectives: First, it evaluates some of the techniques that have been used frequently to measure contagion. The paper argues that if the data suffers from heteroskedasticity (conditional or not), omitted variables and simultaneous equation problems, the conclusions drawn from most of the procedures could be biased. Second, the paper summarizes two new procedures that have been developed to cope with these problems. One methodology is aimed to test for the stability of parameters, while the other one estimates consistently the contemporaneous relationship across countries. Finally, the paper estimates (consistently) the contemporaneous transmission mechanism between emerging stock markets, and bond markets. Furthermore, it is found that regional variables, as well as trade linkages, constitute a sizeable explanation of the strength of the propagation of shocks across bond markets, but not as important in stock markets.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8118.

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Date of creation: Feb 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8118

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
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  4. R. Gaston Gelos & Ratna Sahay, 2001. "Financial market spillovers in transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 53-86, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Powell, James L, 1986. "Symmetrically Trimmed Least Squares Estimation for Tobit Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1435-60, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "On the Measurement of the International Propagation of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 7354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Honore, Bo E. & Kyriazidou, Ekaterini & Udry, Christopher, 1997. "Estimation of Type 3 Tobit models using symmetric trimming and pairwise comparisons," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 107-128. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Sentana, E. & Fiorentini, G., 1997. "Identification, Estimation and Testing of Conditionally Heteroskedastic Factor Model," Papers 9709, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
    Other versions:
  15. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2000. "The Russian default and the contagion to Brazil," Textos para discussão 420, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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  18. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 2000. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," NBER Working Papers 7913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Karolyi, G Andrew & Stulz, Rene M, 1996. " Why Do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of U.S.-Japan Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 951-86, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Paul Cashin & Manmohan S. Kumar & C. John McDermott, 1995. "International Integration of Equity Markets and Contagion Effects," IMF Working Papers 95/110, International Monetary Fund.
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    Other versions:
  22. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2000. "The Russian Default and the Contagion to Brazil," IMF Working Papers 00/160, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Kristin J. Forbes, 1999. "How are shocks propagated internationally? Firm-level evidence from the Russian and East Asian crises," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Roberto Rigobon, 2001. "The Curse of Non-Investment Grade Countries," NBER Working Papers 8636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Michael Chui & Simon Hall & Ashley Taylor, . "Crisis spillovers in emerging market economies: interlinkages, vulnerabilities and investor behaviour," Bank of England working papers 212, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  3. Onour, Ibrahim, 2009. "Financial Integration of North Africa Stock Markets," MPRA Paper 14938, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2002. "Asian Flu or Wall Street Virus? Price and Volatility Spillovers of the Tech and Non-Tech Sectors in the United States and Asia," IMF Working Papers 02/154, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Why Should Emerging Economies Give up National Currencies: A Case for 'Institutions Substitution'," NBER Working Papers 8950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2003. "Market Integration and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 9510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Terhi Jokipii & Brian Lucey, 2005. "CEE Banking Sector Co-Movement: Contagion or Interdependence?," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp077, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Valentín Délano & Felipe Jaque, 2005. "Spreads Soberanos: ¿Diferencian los Inversionistas Internacionales entre Economías Emergentes?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 332, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  9. Enrique Mendoza, 2002. "¿Por qué deben las economías emergentes renunciar a su moneda nacional? El argumento a favor," RES Working Papers 4310, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Kenneth A. Froot & Paul G. J. O'Connell, 2003. "The Risk Tolerance of International Investors," NBER Working Papers 10157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Matesanz, David & Ortega , Guillermo J., 2008. "Network analysis of exchange data: Interdependence drives crisis contagion," MPRA Paper 7720, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Andrew Grodner & Thomas Kniesner, 2005. "Labor Supply with Social Interactions: Econometric Estimates and Their Tax Policy Implications," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 69, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Massacci, D., 2007. "Identification and Estimation in an Incoherent Model of Contagion," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0744, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
  14. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2002. "International Contagion Effects from the Russian Crisis and the LTCM Near-Collapse," IMF Working Papers 02/74, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Antonio Díez de los Ríos & Alicia García Herrero, 2003. "Contagion and portfolio shift in emerging countries' sovereign bonds," Banco de España Working Papers 0317, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Kevin Cowan & Patricio Valenzuela & Eduardo Borensztein, 2007. "Sovereign Ceilings "Lite"? the Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Corporate Ratings in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 07/75, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  17. Eric J. Friedman & Simon Johnson & A.S. Landsberg, . "The Emergence of Correlations in Studies of Global Economic Inter-dependence and Contagion," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2002-35, Claremont Colleges. [Downloadable!]
  18. Jon Wongswan, 2003. "Contagion: an empirical test," International Finance Discussion Papers 775, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  19. Fukuhara, Masahiro & Saruwatari, Yasufumi, 2003. "An Analysis of Contagion in Emerging Currency Markets Using Multivariate Extreme Value Theory," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(2), pages 113-31, August. [Downloadable!]
  20. Onour, Ibrahim, 2008. "Financial Integration of GCC Capital Markets:Evidence of Nonlinear Cointegration," MPRA Paper 15187, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Roberto Rigobon & Dani Rodrik, 2004. "Rule of Law, Democracy, Openness, and Income: Estimating the Interrelationships," NBER Working Papers 10750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Matteo Ciccarelli & Alessandro Rebucci, 2003. "Measuring contagion with a Bayesian; time-varying coefficient model," Working Paper Series 263, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Gordon de Brouwer, 2002. "The IMF and East Asia: A Changing Regional Financial Architecture," Finance Working Papers 384, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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