In this paper I offer an alternative identification assumption that allows one to test for changing patterns regarding the international propagation of shocks when endogenous variables, omitted variables, and heteroskedasticity are present in the data. Using this methodology, I demonstrate that the propagation mechanisms of 36 stock markets remained relatively stable throughout the last three major international crises which have been associated with 'contagion' (i.e., Mexico 1994, Hong Kong 1997, and Russia 1998). These findings cast considerable doubt upon theories that suggest that the propagation of shocks is crisis contingent, and driven by endogenous liquidity issues, multiple equilibria, and political contagion. Rather, these findings would seem to support theories that identify such matters as trade, learning, and aggregate shocks as the primary transmission mechanisms in this process.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
7354.
Length: Date of creation: Sep 1999 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7354
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Find related papers by JEL classification: F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
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Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996.
"Contagious Currency Crises,"
NBER Working Papers
5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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