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Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets

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  • Calvo, Guillermo A.
  • Mendoza, Enrique G.

Abstract

This paper argues that the globalization of securities markets may promote contagion among investors by weakening incentives for gathering costly country-specific information and by strengthening incentives for imitating arbitrary market portfolios. In the presence of short-selling constraints, the utility gain of gathering information at a fixed cost converges to a constant level and may diminish as securities markets grow. Moreover, if a portfolio manager's marginal cost for yielding below-market returns exceeds the marginal gain for above-market returns, there is a range of optimal portfolios in which all investors imitate arbitrary market portfolios and this range widens as the market grows. Numerical simulations suggest that these frictions can have significant quantitative implications and they may induce large capital flows in emerging markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 51 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 (June)
Pages: 79-113

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:51:y:2000:i:1:p:79-113

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”," MPRA Paper 7124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Robert J. Shiller & John Pound, 1986. "Survey Evidence on Diffusion of Interest Among Institutional Investors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 794, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-79, June.
  4. Robert J. Shiller, 1995. "Conversation, Information, and Herd Behavior," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1092, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
  6. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1992. "Risk-Taking, Global Diversification, and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 688, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Robert J. Shiller & John Pound, 1986. "Survey Evidence on Diffusion of Investment Among Institutional Investors," NBER Working Papers 1851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. S. Rao Aiyagari & Mark Gertler, 1999. ""Overreaction" of Asset Prices in General Equilibrium," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 3-35, January.
  9. Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010. "A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1193, David K. Levine.
  10. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Information and Competitive Price Systems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 246-53, May.
  11. Mendoza, Enrique G., 1997. "Terms-of-trade uncertainty and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 323-356, December.
  12. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1996. "Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: a chronicle of death foretold," International Finance Discussion Papers 545, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Enrique G. Mendoza, 1991. "Capital Controls and the Gains from Trade in a Business Cycle Model of a Small Open Economy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 480-505, September.
  14. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August.
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