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The Russian default and the contagion to Brazil

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Author Info
Taimur Baig ()
Ilan Goldfajn () (Department of Economics PUC-Rio)

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Abstract

This paper investigates the contagion from Russia to Brazil in late 1998 under two dimensions players involved and the timing of events. The data does not seem to reflect a compensatory liquidation of assets story by international institutional investors. It does contribute, however, to the suspicion that the contagion was triggered by foreign investors panicking from the Russian crisis, and joining local residents on their speculation against the Brazilian real. Adjusted correlations in the Brady market increase significantly during the crisis, which lends support to the view that if there was a contagion from Russia to Brazil, the most likely place of the transmission was the off-shore Brady market. Finally, the paper does not support the hypothesis that it was the liquidity crisis in mature markets, and not the Russian crisis, that timed the crisis in Brazil.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) in its series Textos para discussão with number 420.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Stijn Claessens; Kristin Forbes. International Financial Contagion. Kluwer Academic Publishers, p. 268-299, 2001
Handle: RePEc:rio:texdis:420

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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  6. Matteo Ciccarelli & Alessandro Rebucci, 2003. "Measuring Contagion with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model," IMF Working Papers 03/171, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Vance L. Martin & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo, & Mardi Dungey & Renee A. Fry, 2004. "Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 243, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Thomas D. Willett & Aida Budiman & Arthur Denzau & Gab-Je Jo & Cesar Ramos & John Thomas, 2001. "The Falsification of Four Popular Hypotheses about International Financial Behavior during the Asian Crisis," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2001-06, Claremont Colleges, revised Sep 2001. [Downloadable!]
  9. Sandra Lizarazo, 2009. "Contagion of Financial Crises in Sovereing Debt Markets," Working Papers 0907, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM. [Downloadable!]
  10. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzales-Hermosillo & Vance L. Martin, 2005. "Shocks And Systemic Influences: Contagion In Global Equity Markets In 1998," CAMA Working Papers 2005-15, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  11. Nicolas Melissas, 2009. "On Bid Disclosure in OCS Wildcat Auctions," Working Papers 0905, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM. [Downloadable!]
  12. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2002. "International Contagion Effects from the Russian Crisis and the LTCM Near-Collapse," IMF Working Papers 02/74, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  13. Melisso Boschi & Aditya Goenka, 2007. "Relative Risk Aversion And The Transmission Of Financial Crises," CAMA Working Papers 2007-28, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  14. Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2006. "Interdependence and Contagion: an Analysis of Information Transmission in Latin America's Stock Markets," Working Papers Series 112, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  15. Komulainen, Tuomas, 2001. "Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: Capital Flows and Herding Behaviour," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  16. Sarai Criado Nuevo, . "Some critics to the contagion correlation test," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 05-01, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  17. Martín Grandes, 2007. "The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads: Theory and Facts From Latin America," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(130), pages 151-181. [Downloadable!]
  18. Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2008. "Investors’ Risk Appetite and Global Financial Market Conditions," IMF Working Papers 08/85, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  19. Marcos Souto & Theodore M. Barnhill, 2007. "Stochastic Volatilities and Correlations, Extreme Values and Modeling the Macroeconomic Environment, Under Which Brazilian Banks Operate," IMF Working Papers 07/290, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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