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Market Integration and Contagion

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Author Info
Geert Bekaert (Columbia University and National Bureau of Economic Research)
Campbell R. Harvey (Duke University and National Bureau of Economic Research)
Angela Ng (Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

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Abstract

Contagion is usually defined as correlation between markets in excess of that implied by economic fundamentals; however, there is considerable disagreement regarding the definition of the fundamentals, how they might differ across countries, and the mechanisms that link them to asset returns. Our research starts with a two-factor model with time-varying betas that accommodates various degrees of market integration. We apply this model to stock returns in three different regions: Europe, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. In addition to examining contagion during crisis periods, we document time variation in world and regional market integration and measure the proportion of volatility driven by global, regional, and local factors.

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File URL: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/cgi-bin/resolve?JB780102
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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Business.

Volume (Year): 78 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 39-70
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:78:y:2005:i:1:p:39-70

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1173-89, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-33, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C.G. de Vries, 2001. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-071/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. " Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-44, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Roberto Rigobon, 2001. "Contagion: How to Measure It?," NBER Working Papers 8118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Dumas, Bernard & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. " The World Price of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 445-79, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Karolyi, G Andrew, 1995. "A Multivariate GARCH Model of International Transmissions of Stock Returns and Volatility: The Case of the United States and Canada," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-25, January.
  12. Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "On the Measurement of the International Propagation of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 7354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Karolyi, G Andrew & Stulz, Rene M, 1996. " Why Do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of U.S.-Japan Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 951-86, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
  17. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. K.C. Chan & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 1992. "Global Financial Markets and the Risk Premium on U.S. Equity," NBER Working Papers 4074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Engle, Robert F & Susmel, Raul, 1993. "Common Volatility in International Equity Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 167-76, April.
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  22. Cheung, Yin-Wong & He, Jia & Ng, Lilian K., 1997. "What are the global sources of rational variation in international equity returns?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 821-836, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 565-613, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1993. "The Comovement of Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1073-1104, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 2001. "A new approach to measuring financial contagion," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 489-529.
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