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Pitfalls in tests for changes in correlations

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Author Info
Brian H. Boyer
Michael S. Gibson
Mico Loretan
Abstract

Correlations are crucial for pricing and hedging derivatives whose payoff depends on more than one asset. Typically, correlations computed separately for ordinary and stressful market conditions differ considerably, a pattern widely termed "correlation breakdown." As a result, risk managers worry that their hedges will be useless when they are most needed, namely during "stressful" market situations. ; We show that such worries may not be justified since "correlation breakdowns" can easily be generated by data whose distribution is stationary and, in particular, whose correlation coefficient is constant. We make this point analytically, by way of several numerical examples, and via an empirical illustration. ; But, risk managers should not necessarily relax. Although "correlation breakdown" can be an artifact of poor data analysis, other evidence suggests that correlations do in fact change over time, though not in a way that is correlated with "stressful" market conditions.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 597.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:597

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Keywords: Bank management ; Risk ; Derivative securities;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Karolyi, G Andrew & Stulz, Rene M, 1996. " Why Do Markets Move Together? An Investigation of U.S.-Japan Stock Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 951-86, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Andrews, Donald W. K., 1987. "Laws of Large Numbers for Dependent Non-Identically Distributed Random Variables," Working Papers 645, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P. H. Kevin, 1998. "The forecasting ability of correlations implied in foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 855-880, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2002. "Hedging Extreme Co-Movements," Quantitative Finance Papers cond-mat/0205636, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  2. Reint Gropp & Gerard Moerman, 2003. "Measurement of contagion in banks’ equity prices," Working Paper Series 297, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 2001. "A new approach to measuring financial contagion," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 489-529.
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  4. Jeremy Berkowitz, 1999. "A coherent framework for stress-testing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Rajesh Chakrabarti & Richard Roll, 2000. "East Asia and Europe During the 1997 Asian Collapse: A Clinical Study of a Financial Crisis," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1070, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  6. C.G. de vries, 2004. "The simple economics of bank fragility," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 755, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Stefan Straetmans & Casper G. De Vries & Philipp Hartmann, 2001. "Asset market linkages in crisis periods," Working Paper Series 071, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2002. "Asian Flu or Wall Street Virus? Price and Volatility Spillovers of the Tech and Non-Tech Sectors in the United States and Asia," IMF Working Papers 02/154, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Philipp Hartmann & Stefan Straetmans & Caspar G. de Vries, 2004. "Fundamentals and joint currency crises," Working Paper Series 324, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Erika Corona & Sabrina Ecca & Michele Marchesi & Alessio Setzu, 2008. "The Interplay Between Two Stock Markets and a Related Foreign Exchange Market: A Simulation Approach," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 99-119, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Colavecchio , Roberta & Funke, Michael, 2007. "Volatility dependence across Asia-Pacific on-shore and off-shore U.S. dollar futures markets," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Y. Malevergne & D. Sornette, 2002. "Investigating Extreme Dependences: Concepts and Tools," Quantitative Finance Papers cond-mat/0203166, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  13. Chesnay, F. & Jondeau, E., 2000. "Does Correlation between Stock Returns Really Increase during Turbulent Period?," Documents de Travail 73, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  14. Gianni De Nicolo & Myron L. Kwast, 2001. "Systemic risk and financial consolidation: are they related?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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