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The Forecasting Ability of Correlations Implied in Foreign Exchange Options

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Author Info
Jose M. Campa
P. H. Kevin Chang

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Abstract

This paper evaluates the forecasting accuracy of correlation derived from implied volatilities in dollar-mark, dollar-yen, and mark-yen options from January 1989 to May 1995. As a forecast of realized correlation between the dollar-mark and dollar-yen, implied correlation is compared against three alternative forecasts based on time series data: historical correlation, RiskMetrics' exponentially weighted moving average correlation, and correlation estimated using a bivariate GARCH (1,1) model. At the one-month and three-month forecast horizons, we find that implied correlation outperforms, often significantly, these alternative forecasts. In combinations, implied correlation always incrementally improves the performance of other forecasts, but not the converse; in certain cases historically based forecasts contribute no incremental information to implied forecasts. The superiority of the implied correlation forecast holds even when forecast errors are weighted by realized variances, reflecting correlation's contribution to the dollar variance of a multicurrency portfolio.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5974.

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Date of creation: Mar 1997
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5974

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael S. Gibson & Brian H. Boyer, 1997. "Evaluating forecasts of correlation using option pricing," International Finance Discussion Papers 600, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Christian Walter & Jose Lopez, 1997. "Is implied correlation worth calculating? Evidence from foreign exchange options and historical data," Research Paper 9730, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Matthew Hurd & Mark Salmon & Christoph Schleicher, . "Using copulas to construct bivariate foreign exchange distributions with an application to the sterling exchange rate index," Bank of England working papers 334, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Cohen, Ruben D, 2000. "The long-run behavior of the S&P Composite Price Index and its risk premium," MPRA Paper 3192, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 685-718. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Brian H. Boyer & Michael S. Gibson & Mico Loretan, 1997. "Pitfalls in tests for changes in correlations," International Finance Discussion Papers 597, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Sven Husmann & Andreas Stephan, 2006. "On Estimating an Asset's Implicit Beta," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 640, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Franco Molinari, 1998. "Arbitrage risk neutral probability measures," Quaderni DISA 008, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy.
  9. Christopher J. Neely, 2004. "Forecasting foreign exchange volatility: why is implied volatility biased and inefficient? and does it matter?," Working Papers 2002-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Marcello Pericoli, 2005. "Can option smiles forecast changes in interest rates? An application to the US, the UK and the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 545, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  11. Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Sandro Canesso de Andrade & Eui Jung Chang, 2004. "Tracking Brazilian Exchange Rate Volatility," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 487, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  12. Cotter, John & Longin, Francois, 2006. "Implied correlation from VaR," MPRA Paper 3506, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jose M. Campa & P.H. Kevin Chang & Robert L. Reider, 1997. "Implied Exchange Rate Distributions: Evidence from OTC Option Markets," NBER Working Papers 6179, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. James Chong, 2004. "Options trading profits from correlation forecasts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(15), pages 1075-1085, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Alessandro Beber & Luca Erzegovesi, 1999. "Distribuzioni di probabilità implicite nei prezzi delle opzioni," Alea Tech Reports 008, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 14 Jun 2008. [Downloadable!]
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