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Forecasting foreign exchange volatility: Why is implied volatility biased and inefficient? And does it matter?

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Neely, Christopher J.

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Abstract

Research has consistently found that implied volatility is a conditionally biased predictor of realized volatility across asset markets. This paper evaluates explanations for this bias in the market for options on foreign exchange futures. Several recently proposed solutions - including a model of priced volatility risk - fail to explain a significant portion of the conditional bias found in implied volatility. Further, while implied volatility fails to subsume econometric forecasts in encompassing regressions, these forecasts do not significantly improve delta-hedging performance. Thus this paper argues that statistical metrics are inappropriate measures of the information content of implied volatility. Implied volatility appears much more useful when measured by a more relevant, economic metric.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

Volume (Year): 19 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 188-205
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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:19:y:2009:i:1:p:188-205

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange rate Option Implied volatility GARCH High-frequency;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2001. "Predicting exchange rate volatility: genetic programming vs. GARCH and RiskMetrics," Working Papers 2001-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Shastri, Kuldeep & Tandon, Kishore, 1986. "Valuation of Foreign Currency Options: Some Empirical Tests," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(02), pages 145-160, June. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jonathan H. Wright, 2000. "Log-periodogram estimation of long memory volatility dependencies with conditionally heavy tailed returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 685, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jensen, Michael C., 1978. "Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 95-101. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility1," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-81. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Bodurtha, James N, Jr & Courtadon, Georges R, 1986. " Efficiency Tests of the Foreign Currency Options Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 151-62, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," NBER Working Papers 8160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Scott, Elton & Tucker, Alan L., 1989. "Predicting currency return volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 839-851, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1972. "The Valuation of Option Contracts and a Test of Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 399-417, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Kneafsey, Devin P. & Claessens, Stijn & DEC, 1993. "Forecasting volatility in commodity markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1226, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Lastrapes, William D, 1993. "Forecasting Stock-Return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatilities," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 293-326. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Shastri, Kuldeep & Tandon, Kishore, 1986. "An Empirical Test of a Valuation Model for American Options on Futures Contracts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(04), pages 377-392, December. [Downloadable!]
  19. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
  20. Chiras, Donald P. & Manaster, Steven, 1978. "The information content of option prices and a test of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 213-234. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Jorion, Philippe, 1995. " Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-28, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P. H. Kevin, 1998. "The forecasting ability of correlations implied in foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 855-880, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Tim Bollerslev & Hao Zhou, 2003. "Volatility puzzles: a unified framework for gauging return-volatility regressions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Peter Christoffersen & Stefano Mazzotta, 2004. "The Informational Content of Over-the-Counter Currency Options," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-16, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Hui Guo & Christopher J. Neely & Jason Higbee, 2006. "Foreign exchange volatility is priced in equities," Working Papers 2004-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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