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Long Memory and the Relation Between Implied and Realized Volatility

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Author Info
Federico M. Bandi
Benoit Perron

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Abstract

We argue that the predictive regression between implied volatility (regressor) and realized volatility over the remaining life of a European option (regressand) is likely to be a fractional cointegrating relation. Because cointegration is associated with long-run comovements, this classical regression cannot be used to test for option market efficiency and short-term unbiasedness of implied volatility as a predictor of realized volatility. Using narrow-band spectral methods, we provide consistent estimates of the long-run relation between implied and realized volatility even when implied volatility is measured with error and/or volatility is priced but the volatility risk premium is unobservable. Although little can be said about short-term unbiasedness, our results largely support a notion of long-run unbiasedness of implied volatility as a predictor of realized volatility. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jjfinec/nbl003
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Journal of Financial Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 4 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 636-670
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Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:4:y:2006:i:4:p:636-670

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  2. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1999. "Long-term equity anticipation securities and stock market volatility dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 75-99, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility1," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marcelo Fernandes & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros & MArcelo Scharth, 2007. "Modeling and predicting the CBOE market volatility index," Textos para discussão 548, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  2. Offer Lieberman & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2006. "Refined Inference on Long Memory in Realized Volatility," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1549, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. M. Gerolimetto & Peter M Robinson, 2006. "Instrumental Variables Estimation of Stationaryand Nonstationary Cointegrating Regressions," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2006/500, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  4. Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Per Frederiksen, 2008. "Fully Modified Narrow-Band Least Squares Estimation of Stationary Fractional Cointegration," Working Papers 1171, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. René Garcia & Eric Ghysels & Éric Renault, 2004. "The Econometrics of Option Pricing," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-04, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  6. Laurini, Márcio P. & Hotta, Luiz K., 2008. "Inferência indireta em modelos fracionários de taxas de juros de curto prazo," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_119, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
  7. Afonso Gonçalves da Silva & Peter M Robinson, 2006. "Finite Sample Performance in CointegrationAnalysis of Nonlinear Time Series with LongMemory," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2006/501, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Peter Christoffersen & Stefano Mazzotta, 2004. "The information content of over-the-counter currency options," Working Paper Series 366, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Tim Bollerslev & Hao Zhou, 2003. "Volatility puzzles: a unified framework for gauging return-volatility regressions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-40, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. Tim Bollerslev & Natalia Sizova & George Tauchen, 2009. "Volatility in Equilibrium: Asymmetries and Dynamic Dependencies," CREATES Research Papers 2009-05, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  11. David Berger & Alain Chaboud & Erik Hjalmarsson & Edward Howorka, 2006. "What drives volatility persistence in the foreign exchange market?," International Finance Discussion Papers 862, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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