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A conditional extreme value volatility estimator based on high-frequency returns

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  • Bali, Turan G.
  • Weinbaum, David
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

    Volume (Year): 31 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 2 (February)
    Pages: 361-397

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:31:y:2007:i:2:p:361-397

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    3. Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Labys, Paul, 2002. "Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility," Working Papers 02-12, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    4. Jorion, Philippe, 1995. " Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-28, June.
    5. Turan G. Bali, 2003. "An Extreme Value Approach to Estimating Volatility and Value at Risk," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(1), pages 83-108, January.
    6. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
    7. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    8. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    10. Turan G. Bali & Salih N. Neftci, 2002. "Disturbing Extremal Behavior of Spot Rate Dynamics," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2002-03, Henley Business School, Reading University.
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    13. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Estimating quadratic variation using realized variance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 457-477.
    14. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280.
    15. Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November.
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    17. Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann & John D. Stroughair, 1998. "Pitfalls and Opportunities in the Use of Extreme Value Theory in Risk Management," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-081, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    18. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Nour Meddahi, 2005. "Correcting the Errors: Volatility Forecast Evaluation Using High-Frequency Data and Realized Volatilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(1), pages 279-296, 01.
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    20. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
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    27. Bali, Turan G., 2000. "Testing the Empirical Performance of Stochastic Volatility Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(02), pages 191-215, June.
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    31. Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 2003. "The economic value of volatility timing using "realized" volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 473-509, March.
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    34. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    35. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
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    37. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1998. "Deutsche Mark-Dollar Volatility: Intraday Activity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(1), pages 219-265, 02.
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    Cited by:
    1. Taylor, Stephen J. & Yadav, Pradeep K. & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2010. "The information content of implied volatilities and model-free volatility expectations: Evidence from options written on individual stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 871-881, April.
    2. Zhao, Xin & Scarrott, Carl John & Oxley, Les & Reale, Marco, 2011. "GARCH dependence in extreme value models with Bayesian inference," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(7), pages 1430-1440.
    3. Hua, Jian & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2013. "Forecasting the return distribution using high-frequency volatility measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4381-4403.
    4. Maria Gonzalez-Perez & Alfonso Novales, 2011. "The information content in a volatility index for Spain," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 185-216, June.
    5. Ramaprasad Bhar, 2010. "Stochastic Filtering With Applications In Finance:," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7736.
    6. Bali, Turan G. & Mo, Hengyong & Tang, Yi, 2008. "The role of autoregressive conditional skewness and kurtosis in the estimation of conditional VaR," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 269-282, February.
    7. Xin Zhao & Carl John Scarrott & Marco Reale & Les Oxley, 2009. "Bayesian Extreme Value Mixture Modelling for Estimating VaR," Working Papers in Economics 09/15, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    8. So, Mike K.P. & Chan, Raymond K.S., 2014. "Bayesian analysis of tail asymmetry based on a threshold extreme value model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 568-587.
    9. Les Oxley & Marco Reale & Carl Scarrott & Xin Zhao, 2009. "Extreme Value GARCH modelling with Bayesian Inference," Working Papers in Economics 09/05, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    10. Basu, Sanjay, 2011. "Comparing simulation models for market risk stress testing," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 329-339, August.
    11. Bertrand B. Maillet & Jean-Philippe R. M├ędecin, 2010. "Extreme Volatilities, Financial Crises and L-moment Estimations of Tail-indexes," Working Papers 2010_10, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    12. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Thompson, Mark A., 2008. "Component structure for nonstationary time series: Application to benchmark oil prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 971-983, December.

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