The Information Content of Prices in Derivative Security Markets
AbstractPrices in futures and options markets reflect expectations about future price movements in spot markets, but these prices can also be influenced by risk premia. Futures and forward prices are sometimes interpreted as market expectations for future spot prices, and option prices are used to calculate the market's expectations for future volatility of spot prices. Do these prices accurately reflect market expectations? The information that is reflected in futures prices and option prices is examined in this paper through a review of both the relevant analytical models and the empirical evidence.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund.
Volume (Year): 39 (1992)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
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