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The information content of derivatives for monetary policy: Implied volatilities and probabilities

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  • Neuhaus, Holger

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  • Neuhaus, Holger, 1995. "The information content of derivatives for monetary policy: Implied volatilities and probabilities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1995,03e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:199503e
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    1. Dumas, Bernard & Peter Jennergren, L. & Naslund, Bertil, 1995. "Realignment risk and currency option pricing in target zones," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1523-1544, October.
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    7. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley.
    8. Bates, David S, 1991. "The Crash of '87: Was It Expected? The Evidence from Options Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 1009-1044, July.
    9. Shimko, D.C., 1991. "Beyong Implied Volatility : Probability Distributions and Hedge Ratios Implied by Option Prices," Papers 91-45, Southern California - School of Business Administration.
    10. Dumas, B. & Jennergren, L.P. & Naslund, B., 1993. "Realignment Bank and Currency Option Pricing in Target Zones," Weiss Center Working Papers 93-6, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
    11. Whaley, Robert E, 1986. "Valuation of American Futures Options: Theory and Empirical Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 127-150, March.
    12. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
    13. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1972. "The Valuation of Option Contracts and a Test of Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 399-417, May.
    14. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    15. Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1983. "Foreign currency option values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-237, December.
    16. Beckers, Stan, 1981. "Standard deviations implied in option prices as predictors of future stock price variability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 363-381, September.
    17. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July.
    18. Cox, John C. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr. & Ross, Stephen A., 1981. "The relation between forward prices and futures prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 321-346, December.
    19. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
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    Cited by:

    1. Coutant, Sophie & Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2001. "Reading PIBOR futures options smiles: The 1997 snap election," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1957-1987, November.
    2. Datta, Deepa Dhume & Londono, Juan M. & Ross, Landon J., 2017. "Generating options-implied probability densities to understand oil market events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 440-457.
    3. Ahmadov, Vugar & Huseynov, Salman & Mammadov, Fuad & Karimli, Tural, 2015. "Brent nefti opsiyonlarından neytral riskli ehtimal paylanmasının əldə olunması [Extracting risk-neutral probability distribution from Brent oil options]," MPRA Paper 65704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Jorge Barros Luís, 2000. "The Estimation of Risk Premium Implicit in Oil Prices," Working Papers w200002, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Healy, Jerome V. & Dixon, Maurice & Read, Brian J. & Cai, Fang Fang, 2007. "Non-parametric extraction of implied asset price distributions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 121-128.
    6. de Vincent-Humphreys, Rupert & Puigvert Gutiérrez, Josep Maria, 2010. "A quantitative mirror on the Euribor market using implied probability density functions," Working Paper Series 1281, European Central Bank.
    7. Michael P. Leahy & Charles P. Thomas, 1996. "The sovereignty option: the Quebec referendum and market views on the Canadian dollar," International Finance Discussion Papers 555, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Bliss, Robert R. & Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos, 2002. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 381-422, March.
    9. Nabil Maghrebi & Mark J. Holmes & Kosuke Oya, 2014. "Financial instability and the short-term dynamics of volatility expectations," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 377-395, March.
    10. Nakamura, Hisashi & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 1999. "Extracting Market Expectations from Option Prices: Case Studies in Japanese Option Markets," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 17(1), pages 1-43, May.
    11. Bernardino Adão & Jorge Barros Luís & Nuno Cassola, 1998. "Information on expectations about the escudo convergence from the volatility implied in currency options," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Josep Puigvert-Gutiérrez & Rupert Vincent-Humphreys, 2012. "A Quantitative Mirror on the Euribor Market Using Implied Probability Density Functions," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 2(1), pages 1-31, June.
    13. Ruijun Bu & Kaddour Hadri, 2005. "Estimating the Risk Neutral Probability Density Functions Natural Spline versus Hypergeometric Approach Using European Style Options," Working Papers 200510, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    14. Bhupinder Bahra, 1997. "Implied risk-neutral probability density functions from option prices: theory and application," Bank of England working papers 66, Bank of England.
    15. Robert R Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2000. "Testing the stability of implied probability density functions," Bank of England working papers 114, Bank of England.
    16. Marie Briere, 2006. "Market Reactions to Central Bank Communication Policies :Reading Interest Rate Options Smiles," Working Papers CEB 38, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    17. Marie Brière & Kamal Chancari, 2004. "Perception des risques sur les marchés, construction d'un indice élaboré à partir des smiles d'options et test de stratégies," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 114(4), pages 527-555.
    18. Panigirtzoglou, Nikolaos & Skiadopoulos, George, 2004. "A new approach to modeling the dynamics of implied distributions: Theory and evidence from the S&P 500 options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1499-1520, July.

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