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Market Reactions to Central Bank Communication Policies : Reading Interest Rate Options Smiles

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Author Info
Marie Brière () (Centre Emile Bernheim, Solvay Business School, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels.)

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Abstract

This paper compares the communication strategies of the Fed and the ECB and their impact on financial markets. Interest rates options were used to calculate daily probability distributions of market expectations and to examine how they are modified by central banks’ announcements. We found that Greenspan’s speeches have a stronger influence on rate levels and market uncertainty than Duisenberg’s. Moreover, market expectations most significant reaction is to economic indicators central banks mention as being important. Monetary decisions are regularly anticipated thanks to speeches and economic releases and the dominant speech themes were shown to be “monetary policy” and “domestic economy”.

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File URL: http://www.solvay.edu/EN/Research/Bernheim/documents/wp06009.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2006
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB) in its series Working Papers CEB with number 06-009.RS.

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Length: 38 pages.
Date of creation: May 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:06-009

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Related research
Keywords: central bank communication; risk neutral density; futures option pricing; event studies.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

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References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marie Brière & Florian Ielpo, 2007. "Yield curve reaction to macroeconomic news in Europe : disentangling the US influence," Working Papers CEB 07-038.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
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