Extracting Market Expectations from Option Prices: Case Studies in Japanese Option Markets
AbstractThis paper focuses on the recently developing financial derivatives markets, and examines the usefulness of option prices as an information variable for monetary policy implementation. A set of option prices provides us with information on the entire probability distribution of the future values of underlying assets. Such information enables us to examine the development of market expectations. The paper estimates a time series of implied probability distributions from daily option prices on stock price index and long-term government bond futures in Japan. The estimation is done for a sample of daily closing prices for the following three periods: (1) the period of a collapsing "bubble" in the stock market in 1989-90; (2) the period of serious stock market slump in 1992-94; and (3) the period of increasing anxiety in the market about a possible deflationary spiral in 1995.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its journal Monetary and Economic Studies.
Volume (Year): 17 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
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Other versions of this item:
- Hisashi Nakamura & Shigenori Shiratsuka, 1999. "Extracting market expectations from option prices: case studies in Japanese option markets," Working Paper Series WP-99-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
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