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Realignment risk and currency option pricing in target zones

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  • Dumas, Bernard
  • Peter Jennergren, L.
  • Naslund, Bertil

Abstract

This paper extends the Krugman target zone model by including a realignment mechanism. Various properties of that realignment mechanism are discussed. The movement of the exchange rate is governed both by a Wiener process on fundamental and by a Poisson jump process with endogenous realignment size. The realignment mechanism is such that (except in cases where a speculative attack occurs) no jump in fundamental is needed to accompany the jump in the exchange rate. A risk neutral valuation of currency options is constructed. Some properties of option values under realignment risk are illustrated by numerical results.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 39 (1995)
Issue (Month): 8 (October)
Pages: 1523-1544

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:39:y:1995:i:8:p:1523-1544

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References

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  1. Lindberg, H. & Soderlind, P., 1991. "Testing the Basic Target Zone Model on Swedish Data," Papers 488, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  2. Akgiray, Vedat & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1988. "Mixed Diffusion-Jump Process Modeling of Exchange Rate Movements," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 631-37, November.
  3. Svensson, Lars E O, 1990. "Target Zones and Interest Rate Variability," CEPR Discussion Papers 372, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Bertola, G. & Svensson, L.E., 1990. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," Papers 481, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  5. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "The term structure of interest rate differentials in a target zone : Theory and Swedish data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 87-116, August.
  6. Dumas, B. & Jennergren, L.P. & Naslund, B., 1993. "Currency Option Pricing in Credible Target Zones," Weiss Center Working Papers 93-7, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  7. Hali J. Edison & Eric Fisher, 1989. "A long-run view of the european monetary system," International Finance Discussion Papers 339, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Delgado, Francisco & Dumas, Bernard, 1993. "Monetary contracting between central banks and the design of sustainable exchange-rate zones," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 201-224, May.
  9. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1991. "The Linkage between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1367-72, November.
  10. Andrew K. Rose & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "Expected and predicted realignments: the FF/DM exchange rate during the EMS," International Finance Discussion Papers 395, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
  12. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January.
  13. Dumas, B. & Jennergren, L.P. & Naslund, B., 1993. "Siegel's Paradox and Pricing of Currency Options," Weiss Center Working Papers 93-8, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  14. Paul Krugman & Marcus Miller, 1992. "Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krug92-1, May.
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  16. Froot, Kenneth & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Under Stochastic Regime Shifts: A Unified Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
  18. Geske, Robert, 1979. "The valuation of compound options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 63-81, March.
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  21. Orlin J. Grabbe, . "The Pricing of Call and Put Options on Foreign Exchange," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 06-83, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  24. Lindbecg, H. Soderlind, P., 1992. "Target Zone Models and the Intervention Policy; The Swedish Case," Papers 496, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lioui, Abraham, 1998. "Currency risk hedging: Futures vs. forward," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 61-81, January.
  2. Mordecai Avriel & Jens Hilscher & Alon Raviv, 2013. "Inflation Derivatives Under Inflation Target Regimes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(10), pages 911-938, October.
  3. Naszódi, Anna, 2004. "A sáveltolás árfolyamhatásának vizsgálata opciós modell keretei között
    [Target-zone rearrangement and exchange-rate behaviour in an options-based model]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 638-658.
  4. Naszódi, Anna, 2002. "A sávos árfolyamú deviza megközelítése opciók segítségével
    [The option-based description of the exchange rate in a target-zone system]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 25-44.
  5. Ekvall, Niklas & Peter Jennergren, L. & Naslund, Bertil, 1997. "Currency option pricing with mean reversion and uncovered interest parity: A revision of the Garman-Kohlhagen model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 41-59, July.
  6. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2003. "A Drift of the "Drift Adjustment Method"," Memorandum 16/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  7. Young-Kyu Moh, 2006. "Continuous-time model of uncovered interest parity with regulated jump-diffusion interest differential," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(21), pages 2523-2533.
  8. Christian Pierdzioch, 2000. "The Effectiveness of the FX Market Interventions of the Bundesbank During the Louvre Period: An Options-Based Analysis," Kiel Working Papers 971, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  9. Bardhan, Indrajit, 1995. "Exchange rate shocks, currency options and the Siegel paradox," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 441-458, June.
  10. Rangvid, Jesper & Sorensen, Carsten, 2001. "Determinants of the implied shadow exchange rates from a target zone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(9), pages 1665-1696, October.
  11. Bernard Dumas & L. Peter Jennergren & Bertil Naslund, 1993. "Currency Option Pricing in Credible Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 4522, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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