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Mean-Reversion versus PPP Adjustment: The Two Regimes of Exchange Rate Dynamics Under the EMS, 1979-1998

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Marie Bessec (Universite Paris 1)

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Abstract

This paper examines jointly the empirical relevance of the mean-reversion and the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypotheses in the exchange rate dynamics within the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). Given the non stationarity and the nonlinearities characterizing foreign exchange rate dynamics, we analyse this question in the framework of a Markov-Switching Error Correction model : it allows a discontinuous adjustment towards the cointegration relationship. We find that the European exchange rates of the ERM members display a strong mean-reversion in the credible regime, whereas they adjust to the PPP during the volatile period.The first effect is due to the stabilizing effect of a credible target-zone, while the second one can be explained by the realignments made in accordance with the underlying inflation rates in order to maintain the competitiveness between the ERM members.

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers with number 1305.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:wc2000:1305

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  2. Rose, Andrew K. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1994. "European exchange rate credibility before the fall," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1185-1216, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Michael Artis & Dilip Nachane, 1990. "Wages and prices in Europe: A test of the German leadership thesis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 59-77, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Edison, Hali J. & Fisher, Eric O'N, 1991. "A long-run view of the European monetary system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 53-70, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-45, August.
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  7. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: Some evidence from the ERM," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1493-1523, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Fung, Hung-Gay & Lo, Wai-Chung, 1992. "Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 553-70, November.
  15. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," CEPR Discussion Papers 1060, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Yin-Wong Cheung & Hung-Gay Fung & Kon S. Lai & Wai-Chung Lo, 1995. "Purchasing power parity under the European Monetary System," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 179-189, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "The width of the band and exchange rate mean-reversion: some further ERM-based results," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 411-428. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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