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An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones

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  • Robert P. Flood
  • Andrew K. Rose
  • Donald J. Mathieson

Abstract

In the context of a flexible-price monetary exchange rate model and the assumption of uncovered interest parity, we obtain a measure of the fundamental determinant of exchange rates. Daily data for the European Monetary System are used to explore the importance of non-linearities in the relationship between the exchange rates and fundamentals. Many implications of existing "target-zone" exchange rate models are tested; little support is found for existing non-linear models of limited exchange rate flexibility.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3543.

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Date of creation: Dec 1990
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Publication status: published as Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1991.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3543

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  1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1990. "Target Zones and Interest Rate Variability," CEPR Discussion Papers 372, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Svensson, L.E.O., 1990. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," Papers 469, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  3. Francis X. Diebold & James M. Nason, 1989. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1990. "Target Zones and Realignments," CEPR Discussion Papers 398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Shula Pessach & Assaf Razin, 1991. "Targeting the Exchange Rate: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 3662, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan C. Stockman, 1983. "Exchange-Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 1230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Giavazzi,Francesco & Micossi,Stefano & Miller,Marcus (ed.), 1989. "The European Monetary System," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521389051, April.
  9. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-214, December.
  10. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
  11. Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber, 1982. "A model of stochastic process switching," International Finance Discussion Papers 201, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1990. "Nonlinear, Nonparametric, Nonessential Exchange Rate Estimation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 192-96, May.
  13. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer.
  14. Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1991. "An Empirical Assessment of Non-linearities in Models of Exchange Rate Determination," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 603-19, May.
  15. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  16. Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1990. "On Testing for Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 85-101, Spring.
  17. repec:fth:coluec:460 is not listed on IDEAS
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