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On the Choice of an Exchange Rate Regime: Target Zones Revisited

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Abstract

From the classical gold standard up to the current ERM2 arrangement of the European Union, target zones have been a widely used exchange regime in contemporary history. This paper presents a benchmark model that rationalizes the choice of target zones over the rest of regimes: the fixed rate, the free float and the managed float. It is shown that the monetary authority may gain efficiency by reducing volatility of both the exchange rate and the interest rate at the same time. Furthermore, the model is consistent with some known stylized facts in the empirical literature that previous models were not able to produce, namely, the positive relation between the exchange rate and the interest rate differential, the degree of non-linearity of the function linking the exchage rate to fundamentals and the shape of the exchange rate stochastic distribution.

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Paper provided by Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC) in its series UFAE and IAE Working Papers with number 518.02.

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Length: 36
Date of creation: 01 Apr 2002
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Handle: RePEc:aub:autbar:518.02

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Keywords: Target zones; exchange rate agreements; monetary policy; time consistency.;

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References

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  1. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Occasional Interventions to Target Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(4), pages 691-715, September.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen, 2000. "The mirage of floating exchange rates," MPRA Paper 13736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 65-70, May.
  4. Giuseppe Bertola & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," NBER Working Papers 3576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Bekaert, Geert & Gray, Stephen F., 1998. "Target zones and exchange rates:: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-35, June.
  6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
  7. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1991. "The Advantage of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 303-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February.
  9. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1990. "Target Zones and Realignments," CEPR Discussion Papers 398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August.
  11. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose & Donald J. Mathieson, 1990. "An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones," NBER Working Papers 3543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Krugman, Paul & Miller, Marcus, 1992. "Why Have a Target Zone?," CEPR Discussion Papers 718, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  14. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Ayuso, Juan & Restoy, Fernando, 1996. "Interest rate parity and foreign exchange risk premia in the ERM," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 369-382, June.
  16. Kenneth A. Froot & Maurice Obstfeld, 1991. "Stochastic Process Switching: Some Simple Solutions," NBER Working Papers 2998, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Svensson, L.E.O., 1990. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," Papers 469, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  18. Froot, Kenneth A. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Exchange-rate dynamics under stochastic regime shifts : A unified approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3-4), pages 203-229, November.
  19. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
  20. Svensson, Lars E O, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-44, Fall.
  21. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "The term structure of interest rate differentials in a target zone : Theory and Swedish data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 87-116, August.
  22. Bekaert, Geert, 1994. "Exchange rate volatility and deviations from unbiasedness in a cash-in-advance model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 29-52, February.
  23. Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1990. "Nonlinear, Nonparametric, Nonessential Exchange Rate Estimation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 192-96, May.
  24. Lindberg, Hans & Soderlind, Paul, 1994. " Intervention Policy and Mean Reversion in Exchange Rate Target Zones: The Swedish Case," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(4), pages 499-513.
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Citations

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(explanations, RSS feed, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
  1. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2006. "How tight should one's hands be tied? Fear of floating and credibility of exchange regimes," Working Papers 06.03, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
  2. Antonio Morales & Pablo Brañas Garza, 2003. "Computational Errors in Guessing Games1," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2003/11, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.

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