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Expected and predicted realignments: the FF/DM exchange rate during the EMS

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Author Info
Andrew K. Rose
Lars E.O. Svensson

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Abstract

An empirical model of time-varying realignment risk in an exchange rate target zone is developed. Expected rates of devaluation are estimated as the difference between interest rate differentials and estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band, using French Franc/Deutsche Mark data during the European Monetary System. The behavior of estimated expected rates of depreciation accord well with the theoretical model of Bertola-Svensson (1990). We are also able to predict actual realignments with some success.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 395.

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Date of creation: 1991
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:395

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Keywords: European Monetary System (Organization) ; Foreign exchange rates;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1990. "Target Zones and Realignments," CEPR Discussion Papers 398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose & Donald J. Mathieson, 1990. "An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones," NBER Working Papers 3543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bertola, Giuseppe & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Stochastic Devaluation Risk and the Empirical Fit of Target Zone Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bodnar, G., 1991. "Target Zones and Euro-Rates: A Model of Eurocurrency Interest Rate Differentials in the European Monetary System," Papers 91-03, Rochester, Business - General.
  6. Svensson, L.E.O., 1990. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," Papers 469, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  7. Bartolini, Leonardo & Bodnar, Gordon M., 1992. "Target zones and forward rates in a model with repeated realignments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 373-408, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Alberto Giovannini, 1990. "European Monetary Reform: Progress and Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1990-2), pages 217-292. [Downloadable!]
  10. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1990. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk," NBER Working Papers 3466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Donald W.K. Andrews & Christopher J. Monahan, 1990. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 942, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Meese, Richard A & Rose, Andrew K, 1990. "Nonlinear, Nonparametric, Nonessential Exchange Rate Estimation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 192-96, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Svensson, L.E.O., 1990. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials in a Target Zone: Theory and Swedish Data," Papers 466, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hans Lindberg & Lars E.O. Svensson & Paul Soderlind, 1991. "Devaluation Expectations: The Swedish Krona 1982-1991," NBER Working Papers 3918, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Inez Sílvia Batista Castro & José Carlos de Lacerda Leite, 2003. "Estimando Probabilidades de Ocorrência de Crises Cambiais no Brasil," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] c05, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michael D. Bordo & Ronald MacDonald, 1997. "Violations of the `Rules of the Game' and the Credibility of the Classical Gold Standard, 1880-1914," NBER Working Papers 6115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2003. "A Drift of the "Drift Adjustment Method"," Memorandum 16/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Why Exchange Rate Bands? Monetary Independence in Spite of Fixed Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. G. Dufrenot & L. Mathieu & V. Mignon, & A. Peguin-Feissolle, 2002. "Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates : some evidence from nonlinear cointegration," THEMA Working Papers 2002-29, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Christopher J. Neely, 1994. "Realignments of target zone exchange systems: what do we know?," Working Papers 1994-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  8. Robert Amano & Richard Black & Marcel Kasumovich, 1997. "A Band-Aid Solution to Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 97-11, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  9. R. Sean Craig, 1991. "EMS interest rate differentials and fiscal policy: a model with an empirical application to Italy," International Finance Discussion Papers 405, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. Geert Bekaert & Stephen F. Gray, 1999. "Target Zones and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Marianne Nessen, 1997. "Exchange Rate Expectations, the Forward Exchange Rate Bias and Risk Premia in Target Zones," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 99-136, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. John Driffill (Birkbeck College) & Martin Sola (UTDT), 2005. "Target Zones for Exchange Rates and Policy Changes," Department of Economics Working Papers 2005-03, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Elias Belessakos & Michael Papaioannou, 1996. "Simple credibility tests of the ERM bands for the pound sterling and the Italian lira," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 219-236, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Sanvi Avouyi-dovi & Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 1994. "Dynamique des taux de change à l'intérieur du SME," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 35, pages 03, Juillet-S. [Downloadable!]
  15. Jose Manuel Campa & P.H. Kevin Chang, 1996. "Options-based evidence of the credibility of the peseta in the ERM," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 20(1), pages 3-22, January. [Downloadable!]
  16. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Assessing Target Zone Credibility: Mean Reversion and Devaluation Expectations in the ERM 1979-1992," NBER Working Papers 3795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Bernard Dumas & L. Peter Jennergren & Bertil Naslund, 1993. "Realignment Risk and Currency Option Pricing in Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 4458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1992. "Estimating Expected Exchange Rates Under Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 3955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Giuseppe Bertola & Silverio Foresi, 1993. "A Model of Target Changes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Paul Reding & Jean-Marie Viaene, 1995. "Capital controls and international trade finance in a dual exchange rate regime: The Belgian experience post-mortem," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 1-27, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Arturo José Galindo, 1998. "Estimating Credibility In Colombia'S Exchange Rate Target Zone," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002604, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Pierre Siklos & Rod Tarajos, 1996. "Fundamentals and devaluation expectations in target zones: Some new evidence from the ERM," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 35-59, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. José Antonio Licandro, 1993. "Análisis de la Zona Objetivo para el Tipo de Cambio en Chile," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 30(90), pages 179-198. [Downloadable!]
  24. Stefano Cavaglia & Kees Koedijk & Peter Vlaar, 1994. "Exchange rate expectations and risk premia in the European Monetary System: 1985–1991," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 347-360, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Margarida Abreu, 2003. "Contagion Phenomena in Financial Crises: Evidence from the Portuguese and Spanish Exchange Rate Crises in the Early Nineties," Working Papers 2003/05, Department of Economics at the School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.. [Downloadable!]
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