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Assessing target zone credibility : Mean reversion and devaluation expectations in the ERM, 1979-1992

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  • Svensson, Lars E. O.

Abstract

The paper presents estimates of devaluation expectations for six EMS currencies relative to the Deutsche mark, for the period March 1979-May 1990. The estimation method is simple and operational, and consistently generates sensible results. The estimates are constructed by the adjusting interest rate differentials by subtracting estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band. The adjustment is nontrivial because exchange rates within ERM bands display mean reversion rather than random walk (unit root) behavior. The adjustment is essential since expected rates of depreciation within the band are usually of about the same magnitude as interest rate differentials.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 37 (1993)
Issue (Month): 4 (May)
Pages: 763-793

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:37:y:1993:i:4:p:763-793

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  1. repec:fth:coluec:460 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Bertola, G. & Cabarello, R.J., 1990. "Target Zones And Realignments," Discussion Papers 1990_51, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  3. Svensson, L.E., 1990. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk," Papers 475, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  4. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January.
  5. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  6. Bartolini, Leonardo & Bodnar, Gordon M., 1992. "Target zones and forward rates in a model with repeated realignments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 373-408, December.
  7. Bodnar, G., 1991. "Target Zones and Euro-Rates: A Model of Eurocurrency Interest Rate Differentials in the European Monetary System," Papers 91-03, Rochester, Business - General.
  8. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  9. Rose, A.K. & Svensson, L.E., 1991. "Expected and Predicted Realignments: the FF/DM Exchange Rate during the EMS," Papers 485, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  10. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer.
  11. Edin, Per-Anders & Vredin, Anders, 1993. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 161-75, January.
  12. Alberto Giovannini, 1990. "European Monetary Reform: Progress and Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 217-292.
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Cited by:
  1. Hui, C.H. & Lo, C.F., 2009. "A note on estimating realignment probabilities - A first-passage-time approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 804-812, September.
  2. Viktors Ajevskis & Armands Pogulis & Gunars Berzins, 2004. "Foreign Exchange and Money Markets in the Context of the Exchange Rate Target Zone," Working Papers 2004/01, Latvijas Banka.
  3. Jeanne, Olivier, 1997. "Are currency crises self-fulfilling?: A test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 263-286, November.
  4. Hallwood, C. Paul & Marsh, Ian W., 2004. "Exchange market pressure on the pound-dollar exchange rate: 1925-1931," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 249-264, August.
  5. Hans Genberg & Cho-hoi Hui, 2009. "The Credibility of the Link from the Perspective of Modern Financial Theory," Working Papers 0902, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
  6. Timo Terasvirta, 2004. "A Time Series Model for an Exchange Rate in a Target Zone with Applications," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 340, Econometric Society.
  7. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 1752, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. MacDonald, Ronald & Moore, Michael J., 2001. "The spot-forward relationship revisited: an ERM perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 29-52, March.
  9. Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "The width of the band and exchange rate mean-reversion: some further ERM-based results," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 411-428.
  10. Viktors Ajevskis & Armands Pogulis, 2005. "Repegging of the Lats to the Euro: Implications for the Financial Sector," Working Papers 2005/01, Latvijas Banka.
  11. Anthony, Myrvin & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "On the mean-reverting properties of target zone exchange rates: Some evidence from the ERM," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1493-1523, September.
  12. Elias D. Belessakos & Christos I. Giannikos, 2002. "The "Lack" of Volatility Trade-Offs in Exchange Rate Zones with Sticky Prices," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 1(1), pages 69-78, April.
  13. Darvas, Zsolt, 1999. "Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége
    [Empirical models of exchange rate target zones]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 507-529.
  14. Amato, Amedeo & Tronzano, Marco, 2000. "Fiscal policy, debt management and exchange rate credibility: Lessons from the recent Italian experience," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 921-943, June.
  15. Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo, 2008. "A Note on Estimating Realignment Probabilities -- A First-Passage-Time Approach," Working Papers 0809, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
  16. Gabriela Mundaca, B., 2000. "The effect of interventions on realignment probabilities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 323-347, December.
  17. C. H. Hui & C. F. Lo & V. Yeung & L. Fung, 2008. "Valuing foreign currency options with a mean-reverting process: a study of Hong Kong dollar," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 118-134.
  18. Raul A. Feliz & John H. Welch, 1993. "The credibility and performance of unilateral target zones: a comparison of the Mexican and Chilean cases," Research Paper 9331, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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