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Estimating Expected Exchange Rates Under Target Zones

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Author Info
Zhaohui Chen
Alberto Giovannini
Abstract

This paper develops a simple econometric procedure for estimating expected exchange rate under target zones. We employ the linear projection methodology to make predictions without relying on any prior structural or distributional assumptions, and at the same time demonstrate that such a methodology has to be modified in an important way to account for the presence of the fluctuation band. Our empirical results show that the band effect is nontrivial for narrow target zones such as the Bretton Woods system. We also develop a method to estimate the shapes of the unconditional distributions of exchange rates under target zones. The empirical results show that the unconditional distributions of exchange rates can take several different shapes, which may correspond to possibly widely different monetary and exchange-rate intervention policies. We also show how to use the projection equations and the information about the band to test the credibility of the exchange rate regimes.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3955.

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Date of creation: Jan 1992
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3955

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  1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bertola, Giuseppe & Caballero, Ricardo, 1990. "Target Zones and Realignments," CEPR Discussion Papers 398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Rose, Andrew K & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 552, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "Target zones and interest rate variability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 27-54, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Alberto Giovannini, 1990. "European Monetary Reform: Progress and Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1990-2), pages 217-292. [Downloadable!]
  7. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1991. "Assessing Target Zone Credibility: Mean Reversion and Devaluation Expectations in the EMS," IMF Working Papers 91/96, International Monetary Fund.
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  8. Hans Lindberg & Lars E.O. Svensson & Paul Soderlind, 1991. "Devaluation Expectations: The Swedish Krona 1982-1991," NBER Working Papers 3918, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Abel, Andrew B. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1983. "An integrated view of tests of rationality, market efficiency and the short-run neutrality of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-24. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K. & Mathieson, Donald J., 1991. "An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 7-65, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2003. "A Drift of the "Drift Adjustment Method"," Memorandum 16/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Raul A. Feliz & John H. Welch, 1993. "The credibility and performance of unilateral target zones: a comparison of the Mexican and Chilean cases," Research Paper 9331, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  3. Geert Bekaert & Stephen F. Gray, 1999. "Target Zones and Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Alberto Carrasquila & Arturo Galindo, . "Consideraciones sobre el Comportamiento de la Tasa de Cambio al interior de las Bandas," Borradores de Economia 034, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Christopher J. Neely, 1994. "Realignments of target zone exchange systems: what do we know?," Working Papers 1994-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1993. "The Determinants of Realignment Expectations Under the EMS: Some Empirical Regularities," NBER Working Papers 4291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Michael D. Bordo & Barry Eichengreen, 2008. "Bretton Woods and the Great Inflation," NBER Working Papers 14532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ribeiro de Castro, Claudia, 1999. "Inside and Outside the Band Exchange Rate Fluctuations for Brazil," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2000004, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
  9. Elias Belessakos & Michael Papaioannou, 1996. "Simple credibility tests of the ERM bands for the pound sterling and the Italian lira," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 219-236, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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