This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Realignments of target zone exchange systems: what do we know?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Christopher J. Neely

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This article surveys recent work on forecasting realignments and estimating the credibility of target zones. The literature finds that realignments are somewhat predictable from readily available information such as interest rates and position of the exchange rate within the band. The relationship between realignment expectations and macrovariables is weak and uncertain. Realignments are said to "surprise" policy makers and market participants; they can only be predicted a short time before they happen. Further work on the formation of expectations would be an important contribution to future research in this area. Additionally, the role of the U.S. dollar in ERM realignments is often noted but has not yet been incorporated into the estimation techniques.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/1994/94-020.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 1994-020.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 1994
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, September/October 1994, 76(5)
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1994-020

Contact details of provider:
Postal: P.O. Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166
Fax: (314)444-8753
Web page: http://www.stlouisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

Related research
Keywords: Foreign exchange rates;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bean, Charles R, 1992. "Economic and Monetary Union in Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 31-52, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Bryon Higgins, 1993. "Was the ERM crisis inevitable?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 27-40. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hali J. Edison & Linda S. Kole, 1994. "European monetary arrangements: implications for the dollar, exchange rate variability and credibility," International Finance Discussion Papers 468, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Rose, Andrew K & Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 552, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "Balance-of-Payments Crises and Devaluation," NBER Working Papers 1103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Edison, Hali J. & Fisher, Eric O'N, 1991. "A long-run view of the European monetary system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 53-70, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Krugman, Paul & Miller, Marcus, 1992. "Why Have a Target Zone?," CEPR Discussion Papers 718, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 493, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Frankel, Jeffrey & Phillips, Steven, 1992. "The European Monetary System: Credible at Last?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(4), pages 791-816, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Andrew K. Rose & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1993. "European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall," NBER Working Papers 4495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Maurice Obstfeld, 1986. "Rational and Self-Fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," NBER Working Papers 1486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Charles Engel & Craig S. Hakkio, 1993. "Exchange rate regimes and volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 43-58. [Downloadable!]
  15. Bruce Mizrach, 1993. "Target zone models with stochastic realignments: an econometric evaluation," Research Paper 9302, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    Other versions:
  16. Michael J. Dueker, 1993. "Hypothesis testing with near-unit roots: the case of long-run purchasing-power parity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 37-48. [Downloadable!]
  17. Cletus C. Coughlin & Kees Koedijk, 1990. "What do we know about the long-run real exchange rate?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 36-48. [Downloadable!]
  18. Augusto López-Claros & Horst Ungerer & Thomas H. Mayer & Jouko J. Hauvonen, 1990. "The European Monetary System: Developments and Perspectives," IMF Occasional Papers 73, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Salant, Stephen W & Henderson, Dale W, 1978. "Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 627-48, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Bruce Mizrach, 1993. "Mean reversion in EMS exchange rates," Research Paper 9301, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  21. Edison, H.J., 1993. "The Effectiveness of Central-Bank Intervention: A Survey of the Litterature after 1982," Princeton Studies in International Economics 18, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  22. Patricia S. Pollard, 1993. "Central bank independence and economic performance," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 21-36. [Downloadable!]
  23. Krugman, P., 1993. "What Do We Need to Know About the International Monetary System?," Princeton Studies in International Economics 190, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  24. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1992. "Estimating Expected Exchange Rates Under Target Zones," NBER Working Papers 3955, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Markus Haas & Stefan Mittnik & Bruce Mizrach, 2004. "Assessing Central Bank Credibility During the EMS Crises: Comparing Option and Spot Market-Based Forecasts," Departmental Working Papers 200424, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Christopher J. Neely, 1998. "Target zones and conditional volatility: the role of realignments," Working Papers 1994-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You too can volunteer with RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-27.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.