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A Theory of the Onset of Currency Attacks Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Morris, S.
Shin, H.S.
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The swiftness and devastating impact of recent financial crises have taken many market participants by surprise, and pose challenges for economists seeking a theory of the onset of a crisis. We propose such a theory based on two features. The actions of diverse economic actors which undermine the currency are mutually reinforcing, while the fragment nature of the media create small disparities in their information. In such circumstances, the beliefs of market participants can be tracked in the same way as the economic fundamentals, and an attach is triggered when the economic fundamentals deteriorate sufficiently to fall below the minimum level of market confidence necessary to support the currency. We give a characterization of such a minimum level of confidence.
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Paper provided by Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford in its series Economics Papers with number
149.
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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 1998Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nuf:econwp:149Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Catherine McNeill).
Keywords: CURRENCIES MONETARY CRISIS Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information
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"Optimal Degree of Public Information Dissemination ,"
Discussion Papers
158, SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
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Other versions: Larry Karp, 2000.
"Fundamentals versus Beliefs under Almost Common Knowledge ,"
Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series
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Fernando Broner, 2003.
"Discrete Devaluations and Multiple Equilibria in a First Generation Model of Currency Crises ,"
Economics Working Papers
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Other versions:
Broner, Fernando A, 2006.
"Discrete Devaluations and Multiple Equilibria in a First Generation Model of Currency Crises ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5876, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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"Discrete Devaluations and Multiple Equilibria in a First Generation Model of Currency Crises ,"
Economics Working Papers
1046, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
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2004 Meeting Papers
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[Downloadable!] (restricted) Christophe Chamley, 2002.
"Dynamic Speculative Attacks ,"
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Mundaca, B. Gabriela, 2002.
"Moral Hazard Effects of Bailing out under Asymmetric Information ,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH.
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Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 1999.
"Coordination Risk and the Price of Debt ,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1241, Cowles Foundation, Yale University.
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Other versions:
Hyun Song Shin & Stephen Morris, 2001.
"Coordination Risk and the Price of Debt ,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp373, Financial Markets Group.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 1999.
"Coordination Risk and the Price of Debt ,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1241R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Feb 2002.
[Downloadable!] Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 2004.
"Coordination risk and the price of debt ,"
European Economic Review ,
Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 133-153, February.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Christian Hellwig, 2004.
"Dynamic Global Games of Regime Change: Learning, Multiplicity and Timing of Attacks (August 2006, with George-Marios Angeletos and Alessandro Pavan) ,"
UCLA Economics Online Papers
279, UCLA Department of Economics.
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George-Marios Angeletos & Christian Hellwig & Alessandro Pavan, 2004.
"Information Dynamics and Equilibrium Multiplicity in Global Games of Regime Change ,"
NBER Working Papers
11017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Mundaca,B.G. & Strand,J., 1999.
"Speculative attacks in the exchange market with a band policy : a sequential game analysis ,"
Memorandum
01/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Femminis, Gianluca, 2002.
"Currency Attacks with Multiple Equilibria and Imperfect Information: The Role of Wage-setters ,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3291, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
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