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Fundamentals and devaluation expectations in target zones: Some new evidence from the ERM

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  • Pierre Siklos
  • Rod Tarajos

Abstract

The credibility of exchange rate target zones for four EMS countries for the period March 1979-September 1992 is examined. Existing methods by Svensson, Edin and Vredin, typically applied to data from the Nordic countries, are considered. On balance, the method suggested by Edin and Vredin provides somewhat better estimates of devaluation probabilities than either of Svensson's methods. While all methods produce reasonably good estimates of the expected size of devaluations, they did not predict the September 1992 EMS crisis. However, we find that electoral and other institutional variables improve estimates of devaluation expectations. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1996

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 7 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 35-59

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:7:y:1996:i:1:p:35-59

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

Related research

Keywords: EMS; target zones; credibility; F33; F42; C10;

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References

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  1. E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February.
  2. Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 493, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Andrew K. Rose & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS," NBER Working Papers 3685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Paul Krugman & Julio Rotemberg, 1990. "Target Zones with Limited Reserves," NBER Working Papers 3418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1992. "The foreign exchange risk premium in a target zone with devaluation risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 21-40, August.
  6. Zhaohui Chen & Alberto Giovannini, 1993. "The Determinants of Realignment Expectations Under the EMS: Some Empirical Regularities," NBER Working Papers 4291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Bartolini, Leonardo & Bodnar, Gordon M., 1992. "Target zones and forward rates in a model with repeated realignments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 373-408, December.
  8. Francesco Caramazza, 1993. "French-German Interest Rate Differentials and Time-Varying Realignment Risk," IMF Working Papers 93/1, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Rose, A.K. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1993. "European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall," Papers 542, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  10. Edin, P.A. & Vredin, A., 1991. "Devaluation Risk in Target Zones: Evidence from the Nordic Countries," Papers 1991g, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
  11. Bernard Dumas & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1991. "How Long do Unilateral Target Zones Last?," NBER Working Papers 3931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
  13. Minford, Patrick, 1993. "The Political Economy of the Exchange Rate Mechanism," CEPR Discussion Papers 774, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose & Donald J. Mathieson, 1990. "An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones," NBER Working Papers 3543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Svensson, Lars E O, 1994. "Fixed Exchange Rates as a Means to Price Stability: What Have We Learned?," CEPR Discussion Papers 872, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Krugman, Paul & Miller, Marcus, 1992. "Why Have a Target Zone?," CEPR Discussion Papers 718, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Francesco Caramazza, 1993. "French-German Interest Rate Differentials and Time-Varying Realignment Risk," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(3), pages 567-583, September.
  18. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  19. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1), pages 51-144.
  20. Bennett T. McCallum, 1992. "A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship," NBER Working Papers 4113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Christopher J. Neely, 1994. "Realignment of target zone exchange rate systems: what do we know?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 23-34.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bordo, Michael D. & Macdonald, Ronald & Oliver, Michael J., 2009. "Sterling in crisis, 1964–1967," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 437-459, December.
  2. Jesper Rangvid, 1997. "Deviations from long-run equilibria and probabilities of devaluations: An empirical analysis of Danish realignments," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 497-522, September.
  3. Tronzano, Marco & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Target zone credibility and economic fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 791-807, July.
  4. Rodríguez López, Mª A., 2002. "Crisis de credibilidad de la peseta en las bandas del SME. Una aplicación del Modelo de Markov con saltos de régimen," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 599-626, Diciembre.
  5. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A. & Georgopoulos, E. F. & Likothanassis, S. D., 2000. "In Search of a Warning Strategy Against Exchange-rate Attacks: Forecasting Tactics Using Artificial Neural Networks," MPRA Paper 18197, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. M. Araceli Rodríguez López, . "Variables fundamentales o ataques "Self-fulfilling"? Una explicación a las crisis de credibilidad de la peseta española," Studies on the Spanish Economy 90, FEDEA.

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